Simple way to end the ‘Pandemic’...
- Thread starter Adams Kebab
- Start date
Lost Seasider
Well-known member
I found that article from the comments section in Nature, Prof Song said:
We are aware of some inappropriate understanding of the results regarding the asymptomatic cases identified in this study. To help appropriate interpretation of the results, we have posted some explanations online and on social media:
Which appears to be aimed squarely at you.
Also, from my link:
But the research team warn that their findings do not show that the virus can’t be passed on by asymptomatic carriers.
Lost Seasider
Well-known member
There's some fascinating stuff in that first link:
During later stages of the disease, symptomatic patients recover and clear the virus, but a very small number continue to produce virus for several months: In Wuhan 310 per 100.000 recovered patients did not clear the virus even after several months. As reviewed above, AIC clear the virus faster. In Wuhan only 3 AIC per 100.000 (i.e. 100 times less) continued to harbor virus and, as the study showed, at this later stage of the infection none of these long-term carriers were still infectious.
Thus, we suggest that asymptomatic individuals are infectious during the early stage of infection, but some rare cases (3/100.000) become long-term virus carriers which are no longer infectious. This would reconcile the Wuhan post-lockdown study with the other studies including the one from Luxembourg. This conveys several important messages for science and public health:
(i) During the acute phase of a COVID19 wave, asymptomatic individuals should definitively be included in the testing strategy and their contacts traced, because they can drive the inapparent spread the virus similar to symptomatic cases.
(ii) Among AIC there is a category of rare long-term SARS-COV-2 carriers (3/100.000), with minimal risk for virus transmission, despite detectable viral RNA.
(iii) Despite low absolute numbers, the proportion of this category of asymptomatic carriers will increase as the virus retreats.
(iv) Finally, it cannot be excluded that rare long-term carriers may become virus reservoirs, with the potential to cause recurrent outbreaks.
TangerineMorph
Well-known member
This is why I can never take anything he says seriously. We were doing pretty much the same amount of tests as 4 weeks ago but the difference is we now have 4 times more positive results. Opening the country back up now could put us into a more severe lockdown in a very short space of time.
Most things are open now, you can see, hug and spend time with your family indoors and outdoors. Pubs and restaurants are open etc. 3 more weeks to wait ffs and hopefully this is all behind us for good.
Adams Kebab
Well-known member
What if the cases are the same in 3 weeks? What happens then? Or is it ok whatever in 3 weeks “FFS”.
Things might be open, but they aren’t operating at anything like they would class as normal, it’s insulting to think they are.
TangerineMorph
Well-known member
If they are the same in 3 weeks then we should be ok. If it keeps increasing by 20/30% each week then we might be in trouble. We will see the full extent of the vaccine program by then and if we are having fewer than 100 deaths a day then it will be a good result.
Adams Kebab
Well-known member
22,868 cases today, 3 (three) deaths.
The last time cases were at around 22,000 and rising was in early December, when there were roughly 400 Covid deaths a day and the second wave was starting to spiral.
There are currently on average 211 Covid hospital admissions each day across the UK, in early December, the country was averaging 1,500 daily hospitalisations.
* FAO Lost please go and check these numbers but all are correct
Local and nationally schools closing due to positive tests and stupid isolating rules.
This nonsense needs to stop, the cult of Covid fear is out of control.
The last time cases were at around 22,000 and rising was in early December, when there were roughly 400 Covid deaths a day and the second wave was starting to spiral.
There are currently on average 211 Covid hospital admissions each day across the UK, in early December, the country was averaging 1,500 daily hospitalisations.
* FAO Lost please go and check these numbers but all are correct
Local and nationally schools closing due to positive tests and stupid isolating rules.
This nonsense needs to stop, the cult of Covid fear is out of control.
BFC_BFC_BFC
Well-known member
A few issues...
1. Monday Death Data has been consistently problematic, so there's often a big hangover after a weekend, resulting in a very low Monday then very high Tuesday/Wednesday as data catches up.
2. December is not a good comparison, due to our position in the epidemic cycle... 15-20th October is a more relevant comparison in terms of where we were with case numbers, though as you acknowledge yourself, we are testing far more people now and therefore this may well be impacting on the ratio of cases to deaths....
3. Hospital admissions data is almost 1 week out of date at the present time.
Clearly we are all hoping and expecting to see a situation where hospitalisations and deaths, but it's conceivable that in reality (bearing in mind we were testing less than half the number of people back in October) that in reality our current situation might be more reflective of where we were in early October and at a time when deaths were around 60 or so per day on average (dramatically different from the 400 mentioned in your post)...
You are absolutely right that we need to get going and reopen up our country as soon as possible, but we also need to be able to do that in a way that is sustainable.... The last thing we need is the threat of NHS collapse and a return to lockdown..It would be a complete disaster.
So the current policy to delay for a few more weeks to assess the data, given all we have been through seems to be the right choice...
Lost Seasider
Well-known member
There was also a note with yesterday's data that indicated it wasn't complete, so there's more of a catch up than usual today.
Adams Kebab
Well-known member
Adams Kebab
Well-known member
So we’re in a better place than October then which caused the ‘Circuit breaker’... that’s good news then
With a few of the expert scientists jumping on board too it looks like the end is nigh
BFC_BFC_BFC
Well-known member
We aren’t fixating on cases, we are trying to give ourselves time to properly evaluate death and hospitalisation data.
If we were fixating on cases, then we’d be going back into full scale lockdown right now ffs.
If we were fixating on cases, then we’d be going back into full scale lockdown right now ffs.
BFC_BFC_BFC
Well-known member
The end is already nigh… The government / Tory party are desperate to reopen the Country. It’s simply a matter of ensuring we are where we think we are…So we’re in a better place than October then which caused the ‘Circuit breaker’... that’s good news then
With a few of the expert scientists jumping on board too it looks like the end is nigh
Anyone who has any understanding of the data will appreciate that we weren’t in the right position at 21st June and that a delay was the right decision.
Lost Seasider
Well-known member
Yep.
I think 122 deaths reported over the last 7 days, but that's going to be a result of infections when case numbers were ~ 25% of where we are today, so potentially we might be looking at 500/week in a few weeks time.
If cases were to spike to say 100k per day that could possibly translate into 2,000 - 3,000 deaths per week at which point we would very definitely be looking at a return to some sort of lockdown.
There's still a lot of unknowns out there.
S
Scaramanga
Guest
Well if that happens I assume we would be talking about the vaccine not working.
Adams Kebab
Well-known member
It’s spitting!! Everybody in!!! Run for your lives!!
I think we've found Prof Neil Ferguson's AVFTT account
BFC_BFC_BFC
Well-known member
Not at all.... We could be talking about a) Not enough people having had the vaccine b) A virus that has increased transmissibility
The whole point of the delay is to give ourselves time to vaccinate sufficient individuals to try and head off the situation. It'd not difficult to see that things are finely balanced and that there is a race between vaccination and virus..... Had we not seen the virus kicking off as it had, then the June 21st deadline wouldn't have been an issue...
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Wizaard
Well-known member
Except you've got the idiots who don't see the need to be vaccinated because it tags them.
S
Scaramanga
Guest
On your figures that’s over 150,000 deaths a year, we have given out over 70,000,000 vaccinations, unless there a new variant that defeats the vaccine then that’s probably not realistic figures. Unless your saying the vaccine doesn’t work of course.
BFC_BFC_BFC
Well-known member
On my figures ?
We have around 32,000,000 people fully vaccinated as things stand. The vaccine is 67% effective…perhaps moreso at preventing death.
So arguably we have a protected population of around 21, 500,000 people… That’s only equivalent to 41% of the adult population… Of course, many of those double vaccinated people will also not have developed full immunity, which takes 15+ days…
So it wouldn’t require the vaccine not to work at all, just a transmissible virus and sufficient numbers of cases.
Up until now we’ve always stopped transmission in its tracks by adopting a lockdown approach. So there’s every reason to expect that cases could develop beyond previously experienced levels… So we need to understand exactly to what extent the balance between case numbers to deaths has changed as a result of vaccination and also give ourselves the extra time required to increase the number of vaccinated individuals.
S
Scaramanga
Guest
So when should we be allowed to live again, following your numbers ?
BFC_BFC_BFC
Well-known member
They’re not my numbers, but it depends on what happens really.
I’d expect it to be 19th July being as that is the date the Government has said it’s going to reopen.
If deaths / hospitalisations are rising exponentially at that point, however and case numbers do not appear to be stabilising, then we may have to rethink.
Lost Seasider
Well-known member
The peak death rate was about 9,000/week, however peak (7 day average) cases was 60.000, so 100,000 pre vaccine might translate to 15,000 - 20,000 deaths p/w, so in that context 2,500 is what happens if the vaccine is working.
As I said, there's vast amounts of uncertainty about everything covid, it is understandable if the government doesn't want to find the answer during a worst case scenario.
Adams Kebab
Well-known member
The Government aren’t as worried...
“The Government has announced that senior executives can temporarily leave quarantine in England if they are undertaking business activities which will bring 'significant economic benefit' to the economy.”
Nonsensical rules, dressed up as saving lives that the rich don’t have to abide by.
Fuck right off.
TangerineBayern
Well-known member
Although the infection rate number is rising everyday the government are patting themselves on the back based on the fact that the link between infection rates v hospitalisation and deaths is broken. It comes as no surprise that at Wembley tonight there are over 40k there and the semis/final there will be over 60k and there will be 140k at Silverstone. Over 60% of the adult population are now fully vaccinated and the virus is ripping through the schools therefore those tested positively should have the antibodies and hopefully are at little or no risk, although some scientists say there is no risk. Furthermore, we are heading towards herd immunity of 85% of the population which is the governments target.
Whilst the infection rate is rising it is of less of a concern l suspect to the government it is however, of great concern to other countries and it will be these countries who will shut the borders to the UK and therefore take the criticism away from the government when people can’t go abroad on holiday this year.
Roll on the 19 July so we can get even more freedom back if not all of it.
Whilst the infection rate is rising it is of less of a concern l suspect to the government it is however, of great concern to other countries and it will be these countries who will shut the borders to the UK and therefore take the criticism away from the government when people can’t go abroad on holiday this year.
Roll on the 19 July so we can get even more freedom back if not all of it.
AndrewDuncanSmith
Well-known member
We could send everyone who tests positive to live in Scotland
1966_and_all_that
Well-known member
OK let me rephrase mine. There's no moral and simple way to end the pandemic
