The Mexican Stand Off

TwelveAngryMen

TwelveAngryMen

Well-known member
Where was Boris today ?

Gove seemed to be the ubiquitous Cabinet rep on all news outlets but wasn't from what I saw really prepared to answer some pretty basic questions - we just got rhetoric ( he even managed to stop Marr asking him questions by just talking and talking and talking ).

Has there been an explanation as to why Lancs / Manchester have been prioritised over Nottingham where there were 650 new cases yesterday ?

Do we see a resolution ?
 
TwelveAngryMen said:
Where was Boris today ?

Gove seemed to be the ubiquitous Cabinet rep on all news outlets but wasn't from what I saw really prepared to answer some pretty basic questions - we just got rhetoric ( he even managed to stop Marr asking him questions by just talking and talking and talking ).

Has there been an explanation as to why Lancs / Manchester have been prioritised over Nottingham where there were 650 new cases yesterday ?

Do we see a resolution ?
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Nottingham has double the infections per 100,000 than Manchester.

Doesn't make any sense to railroad one into Tier 3 and not the other other than it's a political decision to make capital and deflect.
 
Well Notts only went into Tier 2 last week.
Perhaps the hospitals are not as overwhelmed.
Perhaps the percentage of test coming back positive is lower?
You do know that numbers out of 100,000 are are pure guess? An educated guess, but a guess all the same.
 
It’s not a guess as the stat is based on confirmed positive cases each week per area and then converted to per 100,000

The explanation ( according to
local councillors ) appears to be two-fold

1/ that that there are less hospitalisations in Nottingham than those already in Tier 3 - but they run 3-4 weeks behind transmission so that seems a strange indicator to rely on

They are about 40% of Liverpool’s but that’s a larger city so they actually look on par to me

2/ the age democratic of those testing positive ( high student population ) but Manchester is surely the same as I’ve seen stats saying up to 2/3rd’s of their positive cases came from the very high student population

Nottingham has had the highest rates for 2-3 weeks now but as you say only just gone into Tier 2

I mention this really from the point of apparent inconsistency and frankly puzzlement as to how the Govt are deciding when to increase restrictions - it seems to me to be very much dictated by after the event factors and therefore surely it’s never really going to be preventative

Are they following the science here ? It seems not So what actually dictates the trigger ? It seems to be the infection rate as detailed above - that’s what repeatedly gets quoted as justification and when comparing certain areas of the country to others

And if it is why is ‘ the front runner ‘ for the last 2-3 weeks not Tier 3

All very confusing - hence the OP
 
If AB wants to play tough politics then let him. BJ should hold his nerve instead of backing down to his financial demands. If AB is right about infections dropping then he’s got nothing to lose has he ? If he’s wrong and infections carry on going up then he’s a dead man walking for ignoring the governments advice. Either way one of them will look silly.(For clarity T3 is a joke ).
 
I was told a high proportion of Nottingham's cases were young people and therefore not hospital cases
 
bfcpete said:
I was told a high proportion of Nottingham's cases were young people and therefore not hospital cases
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I understand the same however hospitalisation is often 3-4 weeks behind infection
If we are trying to prevent contraction why is that being used as the barometer for Tier 3
 
Asking a question as the explanation from the Notts Councillors ( which is the only one I can find ) as to why the area with the highest rates isn't in Tier 3 ( and wasn't placed into Tier 2 until last week ) doesn't seem to make any sense
 
AB "ignoring Government's advice"! That's rich having regard to a Government that has constantly ignored advice given to it! Going back to a report in 2016 that made recommendations for us to be prepared for a forthcoming pandemic. IGNORED! In January/February this year warning given about impending infections. IGNORED! The "fool" was too busy attending rugby matches and shaking hands with Covid patients!
He said the answer lay in Test Test Test and that we would have a world beating system in place! Instead, a complete shambles!
More lately Sage recommended an immediate circuit break on 21 September. IGNORED cos the "fool" knows best!
Any blame lies firmly in this incompetent Government's corner!
 
EPM46 said:
AB "ignoring Government's advice"! That's rich having regard to a Government that has constantly ignored advice given to it! Going back to a report in 2016 that made recommendations for us to be prepared for a forthcoming pandemic. IGNORED! In January/February this year warning given about impending infections. IGNORED! The "fool" was too busy attending rugby matches and shaking hands with Covid patients!
He said the answer lay in Test Test Test and that we would have a world beating system in place! Instead, a complete shambles!
More lately Sage recommended an immediate circuit break on 21 September. IGNORED cos the "fool" knows best!
Any blame lies firmly in this incompetent Government's corner!
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😀 You do realise that most countries are suffering badly with this virus dont you ?
Sage is a collection of scientific advisors for emergencies. There advice has to be carefully considered with regard to damage to the economy.
Now do you want to continue your anti Boris rant, or carefully offer your insight to what you would do ?
 
So, if you think that Bozo is doing alright, just crack on. I would not presume to offer an insight into what to do, but I am not the PM, who continues to make false promises and bumble and bluster at every question he is asked!
 
TwelveAngryMen said:
I understand the same however hospitalisation is often 3-4 weeks behind infection
If we are trying to prevent contraction why is that being used as the barometer for Tier 3
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The ultimate objective is AFAICS to ensure that the NHS isn't overwhelmed, prevention of infection is the route to that, however infection in younger people is less likely to result in hospitalisation than for older groups.

If you're interested, there's about 750 in hospital in the Midlands compared to 1,500 in the NW and about 1,100 in the NE.https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare?areaType=nhsregion&areaName=North East and Yorkshire
 
No1_club said:
😀 You do realise that most countries are suffering badly with this virus dont you ?
Sage is a collection of scientific advisors for emergencies. There advice has to be carefully considered with regard to damage to the economy.
Now do you want to continue your anti Boris rant, or carefully offer your insight to what you would do ?
Click to expand...
The countries suffering badly with this virus are those without an effective Test, Track and Trace system. Those countries with good TT&T that was put in place in the early stages of their exposure to the pandemic and with rigorous enforcement of isolation etc, have kept the death rate down to about 1% or less of that of the UK.

For example, Japan, with a 125 million population has had approx 1500 CV deaths in total compared with the UK’s population of 65 million producing ca 45,000 “official CV deaths” (and probably more like 60,000+ in reality). Then New Zealand, South Korea, Germany and all the other countries with good TT&T that swung into place early.

Just as the World Health Organisation was telling every country in the early stages of the pandemic... Test, Test, Test ! But Bozo and Dido have completely failed in this regard.
www.who.int

WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19 - 16 March 2020

www.who.int www.who.int
 
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EPM46 said:
So, if you think that Bozo is doing alright, just crack on. I would not presume to offer an insight into what to do, but I am not the PM, who continues to make false promises and bumble and bluster at every question he is asked!
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I didnt think you would have a clue as to what to do and thats ok.
Therefore, seeing as this situation has NOT happened before, every world leader is blindly trying to work a way through this. The 'bumble and bluster' you speak off, is the constant hypothetical situations thrown up by the media.
Just admit it is not easy and you will find your anger level reduce. 👍
 
Archibald Knox said:
The countries suffering badly with this virus are those without an effective Test, Track and Trace system. Those countries with good TT&T that was put in place in the early stages of their exposure to the pandemic and with rigorous enforcement of isolation etc, have kept the death rate down to about 1% or less of that of the UK.

For example, Japan, with a 125 million population has had approx 1500 CV deaths in total compared with the UK’s population of 65 million producing ca 45,000 “official CV deaths” (and probably more like 60,000+ in reality). Then New Zealand, South Korea, Germany and all the other countries with good TT&T that swung into place early.
Click to expand...

Test track and Trace is working though isnt it? Albeit at a successful rate of about 70%.
Oh, and a population that does as its told and follows simple instructions helps.
 
EPM46 said:
I am not angry, but am entitled, as much as anyone else, to point out the incompetence of our bumbling, lazy oaf, in his handling of this pandemic!
Click to expand...

May I ask you how you think Marcon is doing, or indeed any other european leader?
 
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No1_club said:
Test track and Trace is working though isnt it? Albeit at a successful rate of about 70%.
Oh, and a population that does as its told and follows simple instructions helps.
Click to expand...
Can I just point out that you called me a crazy old man for suggesting people follow the instructions. Carry on.
 
Archibald Knox said:
The countries suffering badly with this virus are those without an effective Test, Track and Trace system.

For example, Japan, with a 125 million population has had approx 1500 CV deaths in total
Click to expand...

Interesting that you mention Japan, because they don't have T&T in place and seem to have completely screwed up their response to the pandemic https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3221

In fact when you look at it this is a disease that seems to ignore Asians or at least those living in the area, everywhere across the region seems to have an inexplicably low rate.

One theory is that they've seen a similar virus before, which may have given them some kind of cross-immunity.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-53188847

Anyway not a very good example for you to pick
 
Wizaard said:
Can I just point out that you called me a crazy old man for suggesting people follow the instructions. Carry on.
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Crazy old man , I was previously responding to a girl who tested positive, attending her mum's funeral.
In that situation, all isolation measures should be sidelined.
 
No1_club said:
Test track and Trace is working though isnt it? Albeit at a successful rate of about 70%.
Oh, and a population that does as its told and follows simple instructions helps.
Click to expand...
You miss the point a bit, I feel. TT&T with isolation enforcement had to be put in place when the number of CV+ cases was low for it to be effective in wholly suppressing disease. We missed every opportunity, by not having a system to roll out quickly (promised in May?), by not limiting travel allowing many infectious cases in and by not implementing lockdown early. As Bozo has admitted, those mistakes are his excuse for not having effective TT&T control now, as the caseload is perhaps far too big.

Even if TT&T is 70% successful, 30% of a very large number is errrr, a large number of undetected cases spreading the virus. We are knackered now both healthwise and economically.

While in countries like NZ and the Isle of Man life goes on normally. It’s moral leadership that does that, instead of allowing Cummings to break all the rules with impunity, so that a significant minority of the population says “Oh well, fcuk this for a game of soldiers, I’ll do what I want”.

Yes, I will agree that the French are bolshy too. Big difference from the Germans though.
 
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Lost Seasider said:
Interesting that you mention Japan, because they don't have T&T in place and seem to have completely screwed up their response to the pandemic https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3221

In fact when you look at it this is a disease that seems to ignore Asians or at least those living in the area, everywhere across the region seems to have an inexplicably low rate.

One theory is that they've seen a similar virus before, which may have given them some kind of cross-immunity.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-53188847

Anyway not a very good example for you to pick
Click to expand...
Interesting theories. But still theories of course. The low number of 1500 deaths is a fact of witting or unwitting competence. Where it goes in future..?
 
Archibald Knox said:
You miss the point a bit, I feel. TT&T with isolation enforcement had to be put in place when the number of CV+ cases was low for it to be effective in wholly suppressing disease. We missed every opportunity, by not having a system to roll out quickly (promised in May?), by not limiting travel allowing many infectious cases in and by not implementing lockdown early. As Bozo has admitted, those mistakes are his excuse for not having effective TT&T control now, as the caseload is perhaps far too big.

Even if TT&T is 70% successful, 30% of a very large number is errrr, a large number of undetected cases spreading the virus. We are knackered now both healthwise and economically.

While in countries like NZ and the Isle of Man life goes on normally. It’s moral leadership that does that, instead of allowing Cummings to break all the rules with impunity, so that a significant minority of the population says “Oh well, fcuk this for a game of soldiers, I’ll do what I want”.

Yes, I will agree that the French are bolshy too. Big difference from the Germans though.
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Well it seems that your opinion is set in stone and your opinion is based purely upon hindsight.
Your hatred of Boris Johnson is clouding your thinking.
NZ and the Isle of Man ??? Give me a break 😀
 
No1_club said:
NZ and the Isle of Man ??? Give me a break 😀
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Hindsight is what teaches us lessons. Yeah, I thought the Island could wind you up. 😏 But both are in full control of the CV. Relatively small populations and isolated geographically but shows what can be done with strong borders. Other countries have completely closed borders too... Aus, Japan etc. Not us, though.
 
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Yep, Japan closed its borders to all international travel in April and from the start of September has gradually been reopening more in phases, but just for business travel. Business Track (cross-border travel with 14-day quarantine):
But they might revert. Depends on the CV threat. Yanks and our tourists will have to wait.
 
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Archibald Knox said:
Hindsight is what teaches us lessons. Yeah, I thought the Island could wind you up. 😏 But both are in full control of the CV. Relatively small populations and isolated geographically but shows what can be done with small populations. Other countries have completely closed borders too... Aus, Japan etc. Not us, though.
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Seasider Sam said:
Show us some stats for your 70% No1 club.
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Err no. Do your own research
 
Let’s face it there isn’t much difference between tier two and three, betting shops and casinos closed, but you can gamble online and pubs can only serve alcohol if you buy a meal. Any licensee worth his salt will put on Covid specials at cost to attract drinkers. Don’t really know what Burnham is on about.
 
Matesrates said:
Let’s face it there isn’t much difference between tier two and three, betting shops and casinos closed, but you can gamble online and pubs can only serve alcohol if you buy a meal. Any licensee worth his salt will put on Covid specials at cost to attract drinkers. Don’t really know what Burnham is on about.
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The New Road Inn must be pissing themselves, you get a free meal with your beer there anyway!
😂
 
Matesrates said:
Let’s face it there isn’t much difference between tier two and three, betting shops and casinos closed, but you can gamble online and pubs can only serve alcohol if you buy a meal. Any licensee worth his salt will put on Covid specials at cost to attract drinkers. Don’t really know what Burnham is on about.
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I heard the Devonshire has had to shut because they didn't have the correct license to serve food idiots if true.
 
Gov't now set a noon deadline tomorrow to reach a deal

Will be interesting to see how they seek to enforce the restrictions if the City Council refuse to cooperate
 
It's quite amusing really that Boris is experiencing inside the UK what it must feel like for the EU with Brexit - a small region breaking off and saying it will do what it wants.
 
Archibald Knox said:
Hindsight is what teaches us lessons. Yeah, I thought the Island could wind you up. 😏 But both are in full control of the CV. Relatively small populations and isolated geographically but shows what can be done with strong borders. Other countries have completely closed borders too... Aus, Japan etc. Not us, though.
Click to expand...
You can see the Isle of Man from Blackpool. Goes to show it can be done.
 
Apparently the reference to the number of ICU beds currently being occupied ( think it's around 250 ) is one of them - it's pretty much the same as this time last year

Edit to add I'd not read your link and note that is specifically mentioned
 
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