The Slow Down Of The Vaccine Rollout

TwelveAngryMen

TwelveAngryMen

Well-known member
Worryingly it's looking like the supply issues with Pfizer ( who've said that it was reducing deliveries for the next three to four weeks while it made improvements to its factory ) are having a significant impact on the Gov't targets

The Times are reporting that the number of people receiving their first dose on Monday fell for the third day in a row to 204,000 from a high of 324,000 on Friday which now means we need to vaccinate an average of 413,000 a day to get the mid-Feb target of 15m

Apparently there are also concerns about the rollout of the Oxford vaccine. We were expecting two million doses a week this month but Astrazeneca suggest that it may not hit that target until mid-February.

Begs the question as to why the Deputy Chief Medical Officer is suggesting schools in London and the southeast could open after the Feb half term - ahead of everyone else. Yes their rates are falling but they are still double / treble the average across the rest of the UK so they still have a long way to go !

Personally I think the Gov't should stick to a national approach to education until at least Easter. The last thing we need now is spikes from sending schools back too soon. I also think it could prove quite divisive - particularly as areas with low transmission have been locked down irrespective of their rates ostensibly because of concerns over what was happening in the South East.

It's grim but having come this far let's get the rates right down and rebuild from there.
 
BBC Health chap says that there has been a slow down but Scotland & Wales did not report figures over the weekend and England have also had problems reporting true numbers....numbers will not be as hoped but would be adjusted upwards in the next few days.
 
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I think it's far too early in the process to determine whether there has been a slowdown really.... The Government has set a pretty ambitious target for the vaccinations and hopefully they will get there.... There are bound to be set-backs in an operation of this kind of scale of course.

In regard to schools... They would be somewhere near the very bottom of my priority list as far as opening things up is concerned.
 
Haven't they brought in the army to help with distribution? I seem to remember a press conference not too long ago where there was a Brigadier in charge of logistics.
If that's the case, there's probably more chance of organised distribution rather than being left to MP's.
 
RUSTY_2_STANDS said:
Haven't they brought in the army to help with distribution? I seem to remember a press conference not too long ago where there was a Brigadier in charge of logistics.
If that's the case, there's probably more chance of organised distribution rather than being left to MP's.
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Yes they have and I agree 100% - a great decision by the government, as I am sure you will agree?

👍
 
Pfizer, the manufacturer, still maintain people need their 2nd jab between 3 and 4 weeks after the first. The British government has already gambled with delaying the second jab. What if these additional manufacturing delays mean people then can't get their second jab for 5 or 6 months later? The first vaccine efficacy may have long since worn off and it might end up having been a costly gamble that went wrong.
 
BigHandsOliverKahn said:
Pfizer, the manufacturer, still maintain people need their 2nd jab between 3 and 4 weeks after the first. The British government has already gambled with delaying the second jab. What if these additional manufacturing delays mean people then can't get their second jab for 5 or 6 months later? The first vaccine efficacy may have long since worn off and it might end up having been a costly gamble that went wrong.
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The Israeli's are also suggesting the efficacy of the Pfizer vaccine is a lot lower until you receive the second dose though as I see it the priority is to prevent deaths right now not to provide complete immunity
 
TwelveAngryMen said:
The Israeli's are also suggesting the efficacy of the Pfizer vaccine is a lot lower until you receive the second dose though as I see it the priority is to prevent deaths right now not to provide complete immunity
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This Pfizer jab also has caused some controversy in Norway;

edition.cnn.com

Norway reviewing deaths of frail and elderly patients vaccinated against Covid-19

Doctors in Norway are investigating the deaths of 23 elderly patients who had received the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, looking into the possibility that adverse reactions to the vaccine "may have contributed to a fatal outcome in some frail patients."
edition.cnn.com edition.cnn.com

There is along way to go in this story, I am sure that if the data stacks up then the UK government will do a u-turn on the delaying of the Pfizer jab. The Oxford jab, we are assured, is safer to delay the second inoculation and in fact may improve the efficacy.
 
BigHandsOliverKahn said:
Pfizer, the manufacturer, still maintain people need their 2nd jab between 3 and 4 weeks after the first. The British government has already gambled with delaying the second jab. What if these additional manufacturing delays mean people then can't get their second jab for 5 or 6 months later? The first vaccine efficacy may have long since worn off and it might end up having been a costly gamble that went wrong.
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More doom, gloom and negativity
 
The ramp up of capability to deliver jabs with last week demonstrating that 2m a week was achievable with ability to go quite a bit further (even doubling the amount). Supply was always going to be the constraint at some point but it is disappointing that it appears that already seems to be the case - I would have hoped that would have only become an issue once over 2.5m per week had been delivered consistently for a few week.s I'll be watching the figures for yesterday with interest.
 
Patrick Vallance was doing a QnA this morning on Sky News and was asked about the reported c50% efficacy of the Pfizer vaccine with one dose.

He explained it like this....

If you measure from the moment you have the vaccine, it is correct that it has c50% efficacy over the first 28 days.

However, if you measure form 10 days when the vaccine starts to work then it has an efficacy rate of 89%.

After 28 days we are studying and learning all the time and will act on what we find.

The vaccine program at the moment is just about saving lives by stopping people going into hospital - which is fine by me just now.

If they have got it wrong they will just have to start again, and with nearly 400 million does on order its not the end of the world.

The gamble to protect twice as many people initially, is worth it in my opinion.

Edited to update the figures to what PV actually said rather than my memory - point is still exactly the same 👍
 
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In regard to schools... They would be somewhere near the very bottom of my priority list as far as opening things up is concerned.

This is unbelievable. I'm lost for words.
 
BigHandsOliverKahn said:
Pfizer, the manufacturer, still maintain people need their 2nd jab between 3 and 4 weeks after the first. The British government has already gambled with delaying the second jab. What if these additional manufacturing delays mean people then can't get their second jab for 5 or 6 months later? The first vaccine efficacy may have long since worn off and it might end up having been a costly gamble that went wrong.
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You refer to “The British Government” in yet another attempt to politicise this and as usual, spread your unique brand of negativity, yet...

The decision to delay the second jab (the ‘gamble’ as you refer to it) has been made on the advice of the leading British Experts on immunisation, approved by the JVCI and MHRA.

I must admit, that the decision concerned me too, but It’s simply not right to label this as a Government decision is wrong...

The decision has clearly been carefully considered by our experts along with the data and to that extent I think the Government and Public ought to have faith in that process.
 
TwelveAngryMen said:
The Israeli's are also suggesting the efficacy of the Pfizer vaccine is a lot lower until you receive the second dose though as I see it the priority is to prevent deaths right now not to provide complete immunity
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I think they were including the first 10 days which is before the vaccine has started to work effectively. Take the first 10 days out of the equation and it was nearer 80%
 
BigHandsOliverKahn said:
Pfizer, the manufacturer, still maintain people need their 2nd jab between 3 and 4 weeks after the first. The British government has already gambled with delaying the second jab. What if these additional manufacturing delays mean people then can't get their second jab for 5 or 6 months later? The first vaccine efficacy may have long since worn off and it might end up having been a costly gamble that went wrong.
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RUSTY_2_STANDS said:
More doom, gloom and negativity
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Clearly, it is a valid concern. My aged parents are yet to hear when their 2nd jab will be and 5 weeks have already elapsed.
 
seasideone said:
After 28 days we are studying and learning all the time and will act on what we find.
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This is the key point both Pfizer and myself are questioning.

No testing was done beyond 28 days. The Pfizer vaccine is such that its efficacy wears off quickly after the first jab.

People in the UK right now are being used as a clinical trial. These figures being quoted are not only a fudge of the true Test data figures but also then based on Day 28 and will lead people into thinking they are more protected than they actually are. That's not right.
 
BigHandsOliverKahn said:
This is the key point both Pfizer and myself are questioning.

No testing was done beyond 28 days. The Pfizer vaccine is such that its efficacy wears off quickly after the first jab.

People in the UK right now are being used as a clinical trial. These figures being quoted are not only a fudge of the true Test data figures but also then based on Day 28 will lead people into thinking they are more protected than they actually are. That's not right.
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Sorry, where is the evidence that supports the claim that “it wears off quickly after the first jab” ?
 
Nobody is a denying it's a calculated risk, but if it saves thousands of extra lives then it is a great decision.

If the vaccine reduces its potency then you simply start vaccinating again - which is fair enough really!

What I do not get is why people think we have loads of time to try everything before rolling out - we know the vaccines are as safe as can be in the short term; so just get on with trying to protect as many people as possible and learn as we go.

Some people will whinge at anything the government and scientists decide to do.
 
I've been watching and waiting to see how long the Vaccine failure brigade would start to show their faces.... Loads of other negative threads and just for a few days we have had some positive threads... But now they are starting to come out and nibble away at these threads.... Can't help themselves.
 
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My 86 year old mother in law got her first vaccination yesterday at the Whitegate Drive Walk in centre.
Whilst we would have preferred it at her doctors (it was rather busy at Whitegate Dr), we're just grateful that she's had it now.
She received the A/Z Oxford vaccine, without any adverse effects so far - touch wood. Her next jab is due in 12 weeks.
I can see the sense in leaving it for 12 weeks (rather than 3 as was first suggested?), as I assume one of the main points is to stop people (especially the vulnerable) from becoming ill and overwhelming the hospitals? Therefore the more with the first jab the better.
 
TangerineBayern said:
And to add OL as l said on another thread it was reported that 21m doses are on UK soil
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I am not sure it's a case of being miserable - it's been widely reported that the roll out had slowed down and I have seen it suggested by ministers that they were constrained by supply

If Tuesday was 340k+ that's encouraging and suggests the previous three days were a blip ( weekend might be a part explanation as well )
 
TwelveAngryMen said:
I am not sure it's a case of being miserable - it's been widely reported that the roll out had slowed down and I have seen it suggested by ministers that they were constrained by supply

If Tuesday was 340k+ that's encouraging and suggests the previous three days were a blip ( weekend might be a part explanation as well )
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TAM l didn’t use the word miserable but merely pointed out that 21m doses are believed to be in the UK. But as OL pointed out the MHRA each batch has to be certified for release.
 
346 k total reported for yesterday (343k first does and 3k second dose). That's more reassuring - let's see if that can be repeated (or improved) for remainder of working week.
 
What actually is the plan after the top 4 groups are hopefully vaccinated by mid-Feb as Boris was hopeful for.

I believe people who have the jabs are given cards, is this to say they can go certain places (abroad/hospitality) down the line and those without the vaccine can’t? Or is it simply proof you’ve had it for whatever reason.

I’m just a bit confused what the long term plan is here, or is the plan get the top 4 groups vaccinated then ease lockdown and people can do whatever they want (within the tier rules) regardless if they’ve had the jab or not?
 
BFC_BFC_BFC said:
Sorry, where is the evidence that supports the claim that “it wears off quickly after the first jab” ?
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British Medical Journal article.

"A crucial point is that the Pfizer vaccine uses mRNA. Non-replicating mRNA (basic structure used in the two covid-19 vaccines- Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna) after injection into the body becomes quickly degraded by extra and intracellular enzyme systems (RNAases)."

"Animal models using LNP-mRNA vaccines against the virus show that ~28 days after a 1st injection, correlates of virus neutralising antibody production fall off markedly (suggesting limited survival and stimulation by the vaccine mRNA and its’ encoded Spike immunogen)"
 
PR3BFC said:
What actually is the plan after the top 4 groups are hopefully vaccinated by mid-Feb as Boris was hopeful for.

I believe people who have the jabs are given cards, is this to say they can go certain places (abroad/hospitality) down the line and those without the vaccine can’t? Or is it simply proof you’ve had it for whatever reason.

I’m just a bit confused what the long term plan is here, or is the plan get the top 4 groups vaccinated then ease lockdown and people can do whatever they want (within the tier rules) regardless if they’ve had the jab or not?
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You’re not the only one who is confused PR3 as the plan or the strategy of how we get out of this is not communicated apart from given snippets every now and then, hence the reason for all the frustration, 2nd guessing and speculation. There is a plan for the next for groups after mid Feb, but the JCVI are reassessing this.
 
BigHandsOliverKahn said:
British Medical Journal article.

"A crucial point is that the Pfizer vaccine uses mRNA. Non-replicating mRNA (basic structure used in the two covid-19 vaccines- Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna) after injection into the body becomes quickly degraded by extra and intracellular enzyme systems (RNAases)."

"Animal models using LNP-mRNA vaccines against the virus show that ~28 days after a 1st injection, correlates of virus neutralising antibody production fall off markedly (suggesting limited survival and stimulation by the vaccine mRNA and its’ encoded Spike immunogen)"
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Have you got a link? As essentially any old Tom, Dick or Harry can publish an article in the BMJ?
 
bollieboy said:
346 k total reported for yesterday (343k first does and 3k second dose). That's more reassuring - let's see if that can be repeated (or improved) for remainder of working week.
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Best day so far, wasn't it?

Given the logistical issues around matching supply to demand, I'm pretty impressed with how it is going so far. We could be up at around 8 million by the end of January. That is quite a lot more than I was hoping for.
 
TangerineBayern said:
You’re not the only one who is confused PR3 as the plan or the strategy of how we get out of this is not communicated apart from given snippets every now and then, hence the reason for all the frustration, 2nd guessing and speculation. There is a plan for the next for groups after mid Feb, but the JCVI are reassessing this.
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Reguarding the cards... My wife had 1st jab 2 weeks ago... Bolton Hospital said when she goes for her 2nd jab and signs the form for having it.. They will laminate it and give it to her as proof to be used whenever asked for it.
 
BigHandsOliverKahn said:
A crucial point is that the Pfizer vaccine uses mRNA. Non-replicating mRNA (basic structure used in the two covid-19 vaccines- Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna) after injection into the body becomes quickly degraded by extra and intracellular enzyme systems (RNAases)."
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This is basic science. The mRNA gets injected, gets into cells and "programmes " them to make spike protein. The spike protein then kicks the immune system into recognising it as foreign, conferring immunity on the individual. Once the spike protein has been created, further mRNA is unnecessary, and the body breaks it down like any other material in the body.

"Animal models using LNP-mRNA vaccines against the virus show that ~28 days after a 1st injection, correlates of virus neutralising antibody production fall off markedly (suggesting limited survival and stimulation by the vaccine mRNA and its’ encoded Spike immunogen)"

Not sure of the significance of this. I learnt a long time ago, and so it may not be current, that the immune system is programmed to deal with challenges by ramping up killer cells and antibodies against a template it already has from previous infections or immunisations. That means you would not probably not have a high level of antibodies all the time.

Lets face it, if it was that bad, it would never have been approved.
 
PR3BFC said:
What actually is the plan after the top 4 groups are hopefully vaccinated by mid-Feb as Boris was hopeful for.

I believe people who have the jabs are given cards, is this to say they can go certain places (abroad/hospitality) down the line and those without the vaccine can’t? Or is it simply proof you’ve had it for whatever reason.

I’m just a bit confused what the long term plan is here, or is the plan get the top 4 groups vaccinated then ease lockdown and people can do whatever they want (within the tier rules) regardless if they’ve had the jab or not?
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The cards are generally so they know which batch you had for the first injection.
 
Ah okay thanks for clearing that up.

I’m still non the wiser what the plan is once the top 4 groups are vaccinated, back to the tier system? Aka shaft the north with tier 3/4 for months?
 
BigHandsOliverKahn said:
British Medical Journal article.

"A crucial point is that the Pfizer vaccine uses mRNA. Non-replicating mRNA (basic structure used in the two covid-19 vaccines- Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna) after injection into the body becomes quickly degraded by extra and intracellular enzyme systems (RNAases)."

"Animal models using LNP-mRNA vaccines against the virus show that ~28 days after a 1st injection, correlates of virus neutralising antibody production fall off markedly (suggesting limited survival and stimulation by the vaccine mRNA and its’ encoded Spike immunogen)"
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If you actually try to understand this you will realise the important word in the last sentence is production. As with any vaccine you would expect it to produce an immune response which increases with time. However this increase has a finite value. All this article is telling you is that this increase reaches its maximum after 28 days(ie. that is the maximum efficacy as regards neutralising antibodies from this single dose). Some vaccines can work for years or even ten of years. What matters is the persistence of these antibodies and other immune responses, not the production once you have reached the maximum for a single dose. That is unknown for this vaccine and the article does not imply that the vaccine efficacy wears off. In most cases increases of time before a booster dose increases the overall efficacy of a booster dose.
 
TwelveAngryMen said:
Worryingly it's looking like the supply issues with Pfizer ( who've said that it was reducing deliveries for the next three to four weeks while it made improvements to its factory ) are having a significant impact on the Gov't targets

The Times are reporting that the number of people receiving their first dose on Monday fell for the third day in a row to 204,000 from a high of 324,000 on Friday which now means we need to vaccinate an average of 413,000 a day to get the mid-Feb target of 15m

Apparently there are also concerns about the rollout of the Oxford vaccine. We were expecting two million doses a week this month but Astrazeneca suggest that it may not hit that target until mid-February.

Begs the question as to why the Deputy Chief Medical Officer is suggesting schools in London and the southeast could open after the Feb half term - ahead of everyone else. Yes their rates are falling but they are still double / treble the average across the rest of the UK so they still have a long way to go !

Personally I think the Gov't should stick to a national approach to education until at least Easter. The last thing we need now is spikes from sending schools back too soon. I also think it could prove quite divisive - particularly as areas with low transmission have been locked down irrespective of their rates ostensibly because of concerns over what was happening in the South East.

It's grim but having come this far let's get the rates right down and rebuild from there.
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Poison chalice for our government.
I know 2 people within my family circle who have had the vaccine.
This will go on week on week
Until we can’t count how many people we know have had on he vaccine.
The word is optimism.
The future is bright.
Let’s look forward.
 
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