Tim Martin

[Always tangerine]

But 100,000 short in UK. People no doubt. very sad they can't get toast in his pubs

 

[Lost Seasider]

But 100,000 short in UK. People no doubt. very sad they can't get toast in his pubs

From another thread:

Interesting little piece on it here: BBC More or Less, about 11.20 in.

Short version:

• 100,000 figure is from the Road Haulage Association;
• prior to Brexit and Covid RHA in 2019 estimated a shortage of 60,000 drivers (50,000 in 2015);
• DVLA says 25,000 fewer tests for HGV drivers in the last year;
• ONS says number of EU drivers has fallen from 44,000 -> 25,000, a reduction of 19,000;
• 60,000 + 25,000 + 19,000 = 104,000;

but:

• 60,000 starting figure is very shaky to start with;
• not clear how much of EU reduction is down to Brexit, and how much is down to Covid;
• major discrepancy in total number of HGV drivers between RHA (500,000) and ONS (250,000), difference is between the number of people with HGV licence and those actually using it (i.e. maybe 250,000 qualified HGV drivers not working as such).

Make of that what you like, but I think comparing the RHA figure with whatever the IRTO has produced is dubious at best.

So if you want to compare our 100,000 with whatever number is reported for the EU you will first. need to check that the methodology is comparable.

Assuming that we are worse off than elsewhere in the EU I suspect this is a case of geography rather than Brexit, all the EU drivers who would have come over here can now get jobs in Germany and other countries closer to home, and not unreasonably would prefer to be closer to their families rather than on the other side of Europe.