Wales To Go Into Lockdown From Friday

Wow, this is taking the lockdown to a whole different level, you can't even leave your house in Wales from Friday.
 
There's a ban on people from Tier 2 and 3 in England from entering Wales as well. Presumably they're using some form of ANPR for cars (and even then, will cars be stopped?), but how do they know who's on a train or bus?

Will there be border controls checking where you're from?
 
Wizaard said:
The scientific advice on 21 September was for exactly this measure across the UK. Hardly madness.
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A misreading of the scientific advice, based on what looks like somewhat poor wording of the minute; if you read the more detailed advice paper it talks about a circuit breaker being most effective at times of high transmission, and timing it to co-incide with school holidays to minimse harm.
 
As some schools in England (my daughters being one of them) have already started their half term break, have we not now missed the window of opportunity for a 2 week shut down?
Or will we get a half arsed one where certain things are closed but just as many other areas remain open to keep the virus ticking along?
 
Lost Seasider said:
A misreading of the scientific advice, based on what looks like somewhat poor wording of the minute; if you read the more detailed advice paper it talks about a circuit breaker being most effective at times of high transmission, and timing it to co-incide with school holidays to minimse harm.
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School holidays round here start on Friday. What's your point?
 
Wizaard said:
Weasel words from the Government then, who claim to be following the advice.
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You're building a mountain of theory on the strength of one word in a minute.

Do you think that it the only scientific advice HMG has access to?
 
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I'd imagine there's going to be some 'logic' in getting a full lockdown in prior to Christmas, to reduce the spread and then allow for looser restrictions in December when the spread will undoubtedly rise again. Unless it's been decided that the hospitality industry can simply die a slow painful death.

It is madness. We really can't go on like this and not expect some major non-Covid impact on health, wealth and long term happiness...
 
Lost Seasider said:
There is some evidence that case numbers are starting to level off across the country, hospital numbers are not particularly high, death rates are only about 1/10 what they were last time around.

The case is not overwhelming at this time.
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Thats correct, it can only be a lockdown to 'flatten the curve' of hospital admissions ensuring the NHS can cope.

If we did go into another lockdown, we would be sunk economically, because it wouldn't be for 2/3 weeks (we thought that on the 1st lockdown).
 
Dont Twist it, I never said that did I. Merely trying to put things into perspective. Do you agree on totally
lock down ? If so for how long ?
 
Scaramanga said:
Dont Twist it, I never said that did I. Merely trying to put things into perspective. Do you agree on totally
lock down ? If so for how long ?
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Wales have done it to reduce pressure on the NHS further down the line given that there's a correlation between infection rates occurring and hospitalization further down the line.

I think a two week window for that reason is manageable without destroying the economy. Left open ended would be impracticable.
 
Wizaard said:
Wales have done it to reduce pressure on the NHS further down the line given that there's a correlation between infection rates occurring and hospitalization further down the line.

I think a two week window for that reason is manageable without destroying the economy. Left open ended would be impracticable.
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Till the teaching unions kick off about going back to work.
 
Wizaard said:
Wales have done it to reduce pressure on the NHS further down the line given that there's a correlation between infection rates occurring and hospitalization further down the line.

I think a two week window for that reason is manageable without destroying the economy. Left open ended would be impracticable.
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I get that but in two weeks time the numbers will have dropped and everyone will be back where we started. There’s only so long the country can manage this with that strategy.
 
At the beginning of lock down the message was to protect the NHS and flatten the curve? Isn't that applicable any more and if it isn't ITS ALL SADIQ KHANS FAULT
 
No1_club said:
Till the teaching unions kick off about going back to work.
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Because the unions have massive power these days. What's the source for saying the unions are calling the shots?

As we all know, Dominic Cummings has more say than the unions and Parliament combined.
 
Scaramanga said:
I get that but in two weeks time the numbers will have dropped and everyone will be back where we started. There’s only so long the country can manage this with that strategy.
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I have also said for a good while that decisions about total lockdown should be a targeted localised decision made by people who know what's happening down to ward level. It's silly to shut off whole regions because of spikes in very particular areas. That includes Wales btw. I would have targeted specific areas and not the whole country.
 
Wizaard said:
Wales have done it to reduce pressure on the NHS further down the line given that there's a correlation between infection rates occurring and hospitalization further down the line.
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Except it doesn't do that, it just pushes the peak back a couple of weeks and at enourmous cost.

There's only about 350 covid patients in Welsh hospitals BTW, there's no imminent danger of NHS collapse.


Wizaard said:
I think a two week window for that reason is manageable without destroying the economy. Left open ended would be impracticable.
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My concern is compliance, if we lockdown now without a compelling reason how many people will ignore it? What will be the effect on compliance with other measures after we exit lockdown? What about if we really need a 3rd lockdown in December?

There's also a possible before and after effect, if we know we're in lockdown next week then lots of people will catch up with friends this week, thus spreading the virus more, and potentially repeat this after lockdown.

There is also some evidence that the case numbers are stabilising already, so there's no pressing need for a lockdown and if this is indeed the case then lockdown would be much less effective than if deployed when we really need it.
 
Lost Seasider said:
Except it doesn't do that, it just pushes the peak back a couple of weeks and at enourmous cost.

There's only about 350 covid patients in Welsh hospitals BTW, there's no imminent danger of NHS collapse.




My concern is compliance, if we lockdown now without a compelling reason how many people will ignore it? What will be the effect on compliance with other measures after we exit lockdown? What about if we really need a 3rd lockdown in December?

There's also a possible before and after effect, if we know we're in lockdown next week then lots of people will catch up with friends this week, thus spreading the virus more, and potentially repeat this after lockdown.

There is also some evidence that the case numbers are stabilising already, so there's no pressing need for a lockdown and if this is indeed the case then lockdown would be much less effective than if deployed when we really need it.
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Don't disagree. That's why a localised decision would be understandable because people would know the hotspots in that area. That should ensure a greater level of compliance rather than a diktat from hundreds of miles away based on information about a place maybe 40 miles away but still in your region.
 
Wizaard said:
Don't disagree. That's why a localised decision would be understandable because people would know the hotspots in that area. That should ensure a greater level of compliance rather than a diktat from hundreds of miles away based on information about a place maybe 40 miles away but still in your region.
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That idea has it's merits. But you end up with a patchwork quilt of potentially hundreds of small areas all under different rules which may cause even more confusion. I know there isn't a perfect way of dealing with this. I don't think anybody knows to be honest. I certainly don't.
 
RUSTY_2_STANDS said:
That idea has it's merits. But you end up with a patchwork quilt of potentially hundreds of small areas all under different rules which may cause even more confusion. I know there isn't a perfect way of dealing with this. I don't think anybody knows to be honest. I certainly don't.
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You'd have even more flouting of the rules if different areas where to shut down or not.
 
RUSTY_2_STANDS said:
That idea has it's merits. But you end up with a patchwork quilt of potentially hundreds of small areas all under different rules which may cause even more confusion. I know there isn't a perfect way of dealing with this. I don't think anybody knows to be honest. I certainly don't.
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Local rules for local people. For the vast majority of council wards it would be the equivalent of tier 1.
 
Some of you clearly have no grasp of how an economic runs. Locking down for 3 weeks is not just 3 weeks for a business, its days of preparation at the start, then 3 weeks with £0 revenue, then potentially months to build back up. All the while I’m sure rents, utilities and staff are all expecting to be paid as normal. Traditional leftist approach is to throw more money at it but you can’t support every person losing their job and every business shutting down. This will decimate many life’s for years and we’ll look back realising what a massive overreaction it was.
 
northstand said:
Some of you clearly have no grasp of how an economic runs. Locking down for 3 weeks is not just 3 weeks for a business, its days of preparation at the start, then 3 weeks with £0 revenue, then potentially months to build back up. All the while I’m sure rents, utilities and staff are all expecting to be paid as normal. Traditional leftist approach is to throw more money at it but you can’t support every person losing their job and every business shutting down. This will decimate many life’s for years and we’ll look back realising what a massive overreaction it was.
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This Government are throwing money at everything like it's going out of fashion. Apparently that's ok with those who, before the last election were decrying Labour's plans as needing a magic money tree.
 
I would prefer what they are doing in Wales, a 17-day short sharp shock than what is happening with tier 3. Tier 3 could last for months and in the absence of help from the government this time it will mean housing costs, credit cards and utility bills not being paid if it lasts past December and I'm one of the luckier ones insofar as I'm able to last that long.

We are in a situation where the government has taken away the ability of 1000s of people to make a living while offering no support financially over an indeterminate period of time. The last lockdown we were being looked after this time it is very worrying indeed
 
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