SEASIDE2020
Well-known member
To be fair it was the media and the bookies who were predicting a defeat for Trump and Brexit. People were just repeating the perceived wisdom. The bookies gave Trump a 15% chance of winning and Brexit a 25% chance. They were both big underdogs, Brexit unjustifiably so.
53
Forgot to say, Brexit was second favourite, obviously the odds varied all the time and you quote 25% (3/1) which it will have been at some point in time.
You say it was unjustifiably 3/1 and I assume you mean that you believe it should have been shorter - apologies if I have misunderstood.
If that was the case then you should have filled your boots because - as you advise above - it is not about trying to back winners.
It is about obtaining bigger odds about an occurrence than the true odds of that occurrence.
I am not sure that obtaining better than the true odds of an occurrence is that easy to be honest, I wouldn't be sure that your opinion on politics would be more informed than that of the bookmakers.
Please don't take that the wrong way 53 and apologies for changing the subject from politics to punting but you encouraged me.