Total Lockdown Inevitable.

Peru had the strictest and longest lockdown under military control out of any country in the world and they have the worst death rate because of it.

If you read the article in full they have no real idea why it didn’t work.

They suggest many but then say effectively ‘oh well’

Peru is an outlier when looking at results around the globe - therefore it should be learnt from but has no real basis in making decisions.
 
Singapore is open internally and I am free to go out shopping, go for a beer or a meal and have been able since the main lockdown finished in July.

Therefore it has worked.

The only cases in the community recently (past few months) have come from local marine workers checking or working in docked ships or working with people in quarantine or at the airport - which they have now sorted with different protocols.

The fact the UK has shut pretty much everything and here is pretty much open - it’s fair to say it HAS worked.

Today we had zero cases in the community and 25 found in quarantine from travelers.

Yes they are protecting themselves with border closures from the international threat - but that is common sense!!!

Singapore went hard and early when the virus was taking hold - unlike the UK government.

Test and trace also works.

As you say, the leaky bucket is currently plugged and Singapore is forced to continue to adopt measures to prevent the virus from gaining traction.

As you have acknowledged, the virus was never widely seeded within the community in any case. It was essentially isolated to a single source (foreign workers) and was therefore relatively straightforward to isolate.

The EU and U.K. faced a totally different issue with the virus already widespread throughout the population and distributed far and wide.

Singapore had some past experience of this type of virus and the impact it can have. They reacted very similarly to the U.K. in the early stages, though possibly had more experience to draw upon. As above, they were dealing with a much more isolated infection, when compared to the EU.

Test snd Trace when community infection is limited. Once infection becomes widespread any T&T system is overwhelmed and ineffective.
 
As you say, the leaky bucket is currently plugged and Singapore is forced to continue to adopt measures to prevent the virus from gaining traction.

As you have acknowledged, the virus was never widely seeded within the community in any case. It was essentially isolated to a single source (foreign workers) and was therefore relatively straightforward to isolate.

The EU and U.K. faced a totally different issue with the virus already widespread throughout the population and distributed far and wide.

Singapore had some past experience of this type of virus and the impact it can have. They reacted very similarly to the U.K. in the early stages, though possibly had more experience to draw upon. As above, they were dealing with a much more isolated infection, when compared to the EU.

Test snd Trace when community infection is limited. Once infection becomes widespread any T&T system is overwhelmed and ineffective.

Why will you not accept that lockdowns work if they are done correctly?

There is loads of evidence around the globe for this.
 
Is that not the same situation throughout many other countries in Europe too? Restrictions, tighter restrictions, softening of restrictions repeat. Has any European country really got to grips with it? A simple google will find criticism of both Merkel and Macrons handling of the crisis. So it's not just our govt struggling to cope with this pandemic is it?.

I agree that others have struggled too. But are you saying that we should ease off on criticising how inept our Government has been because others have been inept as well? It's not an argument that holds much water. The public enquiry that surely must follow, and the production of a revised emergency planning strategy, will bear close watching.

It isn't just the Government's fault of course. The UK population hasn't always helped itself.
 
I agree that others have struggled too. But are you saying that we should ease off on criticising how inept our Government has been because others have been inept as well? It's not an argument that holds much water. The public enquiry that surely must follow, and the production of a revised emergency planning strategy, will bear close watching.

It isn't just the Government's fault of course. The UK population hasn't always helped itself.
The public enquire will finish Boris if he hasn’t gone already.

The Torys will want a leader not tarnished with this for the next election.
 
How long do you want the lockdown to be because as proven with the November month one is a complete waste of time.
This virus is going nowhere fast and it's going to take a few months to get the over 65's first vaccine then start on the over 50's and give then the second one it could be June before myself and the rest of under 50's get vaccinated should we keep us in Lockdown until then?

So let's us all catch it at some point keep away from the elderly until they have had the jab crack on with life pay our taxes and keep people in work.

The thing is this - as I said above - we didn't lock down. I was still in contact with people from a wide geographical spread as my job went on as did my partners and my lad was still at school. Yes, I worked from home a bit more but I still went to an office and sat with a lad from Southport, a bloke from Preston, a woman from Blackburn and my partner went to work and spent time with kids who travelled about in breach of rules, went to sleepovers etc as well as people from Ulverston, Morecambe, Kirby Lonsdale and so on.

I then went to the supermarket and presumably mixed with a bunch of people who were in the same boat including some people who may have travelled abroad at some point for work and so on and so forth.

My thought is simply this. We've spent shit loads on not being very effective and yes, other countries have had the problem as well. But we don't seem to be willing to countenaince the tough option because we need to be economically driven. But... we've already spent shitloads.

It seems like when you want to buy something and go for a slightly cheaper option and then end up going 'damn, I wish I'd spent the extra £100' - you end up wishing you'd gone all in, cos you've still spent a load but you're unhappy with the thing you get.

With a vaccine on the horizon and an economic recovery tangible, I'd personally bet the house on it.

I've no issue with people wanting to get outside, people wanting to exercise and people being sensible in doing so and I have massive sympathy for people who are self employed and so on, I totally get why people are against it when they need to feed their family and keep businesses going - that's up to the Government to provide and I'll pay more tax if required - my feeling is, and I'm fully prepared to be wrong, if we take tough measures, we bring the end forward.

If we prevaricate, we delay it. The economic rebuilding needs to be strong, certain and as soon as possible and the only way to do that imo is to get numbers down fast and I don't see how we can do that with the situation I have been living and will presumably continue to live. The way I see it is thus - I havn't risked going seeing our parents because of the contact we have with others as a family - that seems logical. If I then extend that to the wider society around me, if I'm worried about my mum, I should also be concerned about the old lady who takes the trolly after me, or picks up the bag of apples I put back down because one of them was rotten or whatever it is.

Not arguing about this - that's how I see it - I'm not an expert, I know sweet FA in the grand scheme of things and I read the views of others with interest and I'm also concerned about the mental health aspect, but for me, the living life caught between two positions is impacting my mental health as well as everything is a pale shadow of reality, but I keep having to engage with it.

Actually, that's a good line for some kind of emo song. Fuck blogging, I'm going to write songs for miserable teenagers.

Right. I REALLY NEED TO STOP COMING ON HERE!
 
Have you actually read a single word I have said in response?
Yes.....and you have been shown how lockdowns can work.

....and here is part of the UK problem.

If you hide codeshare there are 89 flights arriving at LHR today.

 
Because there is literally no conclusive evidence whatsoever to support your claim.
On the other hand, there's no conclusive evidence that a tier based system with regional variations etc works.

I admire your commitment to evidence (I'm not being sarcastic) but there's also plenty of evidence that we've done things not based on evidence or that run counter to at least some evidence.

When we started all this, it was indy sage are 'a bunch of agenda driven lefties' (not saying ye said that, but many did) and now you've got yer actual sage making recommendations, that doesn't seem to count either.

I don't have the time, what with my busy schedule of writing pointless blogs and posting on here instead of working to sift through all the evidence and people who have kept better informed than me I admire for that, but what I have seen does seem to suggest we should be taking a more defined approach and whilst Starmer is a weak lemon drink of a person, I do agree with the central point that Boris seems to say 'we won't, we'll wait, no chance' then do it a week after he should have done.

Personally, I'd go for.

For four weeks, stay the fuck away from other people. Don't be a knob or the spy drone will shoot you. Otherwise, live as much as you can and we'll stick some grand stuff on the telly and that. Outside is good, but don't be a dick about it. The end.

Whilst a large group of people are still working, that means supermarkets and transport have bottle neck times etc. It also compresses exercise into more defined blocks of time and whilst I think the 'oh look at people walking about!' is hysteria, it would be good if people could walk about in less dense numbers, even if just because it would give some people more confidence to walk about, which would be good for them.

I doubt I'm getting the call from Government anytime soon though, so I don't think anyone really needs to worry about what I think.

*How do we pay for this td53?*
*I dunno, sell trident to North Korea or something*
*but they don't have any money either*
*what IS money though?*

Seriously. I need to get off this site for a bit. If I'm on here before 6pm, report me to the mods or something.
 
Yes.....and you have shown how lockdowns can work.

....and here is part of the UK problem.

If you hide codeshare there are 89 flights arriving at LHR today.

You have not demonstrated to me that lockdowns are anything other than a temporary solution. In fact you admit yourself that it is necessary to remain in lockdown in order to prevent infections from growing again.

You’ve got no answer for the plethora of alternative possibilities that may make the ability for one country to regain control when compared to another.

You use the phrase “if used properly” as the sole basis for determining the relative success or failure of lockdown action, yet you have provided no evidence, beyond huge assumptions, to support your case.

I’m really not interested in your information that shows the U.K. is open to the outside world.... I get it... If you close your doors and remain in some form of lockdown, then you may be able to keep the virus at bay for a time.... Like I said at the outset... you may plug the leaky bucket...
 
Again you do not accept that lockdowns work, even when shown actual examples of them working.

I am sorry if the facts do not fit your agenda.

A few countries made the lockdowns work and have brought it under control.

The evidence is overwhelming for this, but you simply will not accept it.
 
If you read the article in full they have no real idea why it didn’t work.

They suggest many but then say effectively ‘oh well’

Peru is an outlier when looking at results around the globe - therefore it should be learnt from but has no real basis in making decisions.
it didnt work because you cannot control a virus
 
You have not demonstrated to me that lockdowns are anything other than a temporary solution. In fact you admit yourself that it is necessary to remain in lockdown in order to prevent infections from growing again.

You’ve got no answer for the plethora of alternative possibilities that may make the ability for one country to regain control when compared to another.

You use the phrase “if used properly” as the sole basis for determining the relative success or failure of lockdown action, yet you have provided no evidence, beyond huge assumptions, to support your case.

I’m really not interested in your information that shows the U.K. is open to the outside world.... I get it... If you close your doors and remain in some form of lockdown, then you may be able to keep the virus at bay for a time.... Like I said at the outset... you may plug the leaky bucket...
Plug the leaky bucket until the jab does its job. That's the difference between last March and now. There was no jab
 
Again you do not accept that lockdowns work, even when shown actual examples of them working.

I am sorry if the facts do not fit your agenda.

A few countries made the lockdowns work and have brought it under control.

The evidence is overwhelming for this, but you simply will not accept it.
You haven’t provided any examples of lockdowns working.

You’ve provided examples of countries that remain in partial lockdown who have managed to get the virus under temporary control.

You’ve not been able to provide any conclusive evidence to support your claim that “properly implemented lockdowns work”...

As I have said repeatedly there are innumerable potential reasons that have enabled different countries to get the virus under relative control (recognising of course that is not a long term solution)
 
You haven’t provided any examples of lockdowns working.

You’ve provided examples of countries that remain in partial lockdown who have managed to get the virus under temporary control.

You’ve not been able to provide any conclusive evidence to support your claim that “properly implemented lockdowns work”...

As I have said repeatedly there are innumerable potential reasons that have enabled different countries to get the virus under relative control (recognising of course that is not a long term solution)
Just keep ignoring the evidence then 👍
 
I still can’t get my head round it being called a lockdown.....
Everyone stay home, apart from school kids, university students/lecturers, most workers ie virtually everyone....
Hardly martial law is it.......?
 
You have been shown examples - now you are even denying the evidence exists 😂
No I haven’t ...

All you have done is referenced countries who have been able to reduce virus transmission.

You haven’t provided any evidence to prove the reason for the reduction. And you certainly haven’t provided any evidence to support your claim that “properly implemented lockdown measure work”

What you have done is provided some evidence that Countries who have implemented lockdown measures have seen a reduction in virus transmission to very low levels. That’s all...

Your idea of evidence is very different to mine. I certainly wouldn’t want you on the Jury if I faced a wrongful conviction.
 
I still can’t get my head round it being called a lockdown.....
Everyone stay home, apart from school kids, university students/lecturers, most workers ie virtually everyone....
Hardly martial law is it.......?
This.
Plus:
I can go shopping
I can go for a walk
I can play golf with one other person
I can go to Church
I can get on a bus. And a Train. And a Tram
I can attend a wedding. And a funeral
I can take my kids to school
etc etc
 
No I haven’t ...

All you have done is referenced countries who have been able to reduce virus transmission.

You haven’t provided any evidence to prove the reason for the reduction. And you certainly haven’t provided any evidence to support your claim that “properly implemented lockdown measure work”

What you have done is provided some evidence that Countries who have implemented lockdown measures have seen a reduction in virus transmission to very low levels. That’s all...

Your idea of evidence is very different to mine. I certainly wouldn’t want you on the Jury if I faced a wrongful conviction.
WOW

Read the thread again and understand why the lockdown in Singapore has worked 👍

The countries where lockdown has worked have pretty much done the same thing - which is evidence that lockdowns work if done properly.

The evidence is overwhelming......then compare to the UK - and you will see why it hasn’t worked.
 
WOW

Read the thread again and understand why the lockdown in Singapore has worked 👍

The countries where lockdown has worked have pretty much done the same thing - which is evidence that lockdowns work if done properly.

The evidence is overwhelming......then compare to the UK - and you will see why it hasn’t worked.
you are struggling now somebody has asked you to provide evidence
 
WOW

Read the thread again and understand why the lockdown in Singapore has worked 👍

The countries where lockdown has worked have pretty much done the same thing - which is evidence that lockdowns work if done properly.

The evidence is overwhelming......then compare to the UK - and you will see why it hasn’t worked.
I’ve read the thread...

No it’s not...It’s merely evidence that, in certain circumstances, where lockdown measure have been implemented, virus transmission has reduced.

The evidence is far from ‘overwhelming’... It is extremely speculative.
If I was you seasideone, I’d go out for nice ice cold beer and leave him to it! Yum Seng🍻
Why don’t you just butt out of other peoples conversations unless you have something of value to contribute?

My little spurned ex-girlfriend 😘
 
Utter rubbish.

Countries have successfully controlled the virus using lockdowns.

It’s like being on a roundabout this!
Damn right it is..

I keep asking for evidence to support your claim that “properly implemented lockdowns work” and you keep failing to provide it.

If you do ever find any evidence then feel free to let me know and provide a supporting link to the proof.
👍
 
Just to add... Your argument is no more convincing than “cannabis cures cancer”
Not sure what cannabis has to do with this - strange comment.

Anyway, I have laid out evidence in front of you, if you cannot see it, I cannot help you further.
 
I’ve read the thread...

No it’s not...It’s merely evidence that, in certain circumstances, where lockdown measure have been implemented, virus transmission has reduced.

The evidence is far from ‘overwhelming’... It is extremely speculative.

Why don’t you just butt out of other peoples conversations unless you have something of value to contribute?

My little spurned ex-girlfriend 😘
I’ve read the thread...

No it’s not...It’s merely evidence that, in certain circumstances, where lockdown measure have been implemented, virus transmission has reduced.

The evidence is far from ‘overwhelming’... It is extremely speculative.

Why don’t you just butt out of other peoples conversations unless you have something of value to contribute?

My little spurned ex-girlfriend 😘
You really are an angry young man aren’t you, you labour one particular point on a subject over an over again, until the other poster normally thinks bollox to this. For what it’s worth Singapore is in a far better position with their successful lockdown, whilst deaths in our country keep on rising alarmingly. As the various vaccines start rolling out I know which country will be in the best position to benefit from them, and it won’t be us. I’d calm down a bit if I was you, or you’ll self combust before long, and your childish remarks do nothing to enhance your own view of yourself as a knowledgeable expert on every subject!
 
Not sure what cannabis has to do with this - strange comment.

Anyway, I have laid out evidence in front of you, if you cannot see it, I cannot help you further.
I’m simply comparing your evidence to that of those people who promote cannabis as a cancer cure.

I don’t need your help... You are the one who is trying to convince me to accept your assumptive / theoretical claim.

You haven’t provided evidence that proves your claim... end of!

I’m not particularly invested in my position on this and would change my mind in an instant, given actual evidence...
 
I’m simply comparing your evidence to that of those people who promote cannabis as a cancer cure.

I don’t need your help... You are the one who is trying to convince me to accept your assumptive / theoretical claim.

You haven’t provided evidence that proves your claim... end of!

I’m not particularly invested in my position on this and would change my mind in an instant, given actual evidence...
Ok then.
Please explain how the virus, which originated in Wuhan and was widely seeded there, was eradicated from that city.
I'd be very interested to know if it wasn't through lockdown measures and I'm sure many governments would be interested to know as well.
 
You really are an angry young man aren’t you, you labour one particular point on a subject over an over again, until the other poster normally thinks bollox to this. For what it’s worth Singapore is in a far better position with their successful lockdown, whilst deaths in our country keep on rising alarmingly. As the various vaccines start rolling out I know which country will be in the best position to benefit from them, and it won’t be us. I’d calm down a bit if I was you, or you’ll self combust before long, and your childish remarks do nothing to enhance your own own view of yourself as a knowledgeable expert on every subject!
No, I’m not angry at all. I’m just interested in having a conversation and trying to improve my own understanding. If that means labouring the point in order to identify whether seasideone is simply speculating or whether he actually has access to some real evidence then I’m happy to Labour the point so long as he is.

As for Singapore, we have no idea why they are in the position they are in... We can speculate, but there are a whole range of possibilities (ranging from the characteristics and variant of the virus itself, the way it was originally seeded, a whole range of actions they implemented, their climate, their culture etc.)

Don’t worry about me self combusting... I’m quite calm and relaxed....

Let’s not forget... I’m not the one who is stalking another poster, just because I’ve developed a little internet based bee in my bonnet... 😉

How long have you been throwing in your little childish digs now?? Can you remember ?
 
Ok then.
Please explain how the virus, which originated in Wuhan and was widely seeded there, was eradicated from that city.
I'd be very interested to know if it wasn't through lockdown measures and I'm sure many governments would be interested to know as well.
Spot on.

....but BFCx3 will claim it isn’t evidence of lockdowns being successful 👍
 
Ok then.
Please explain how the virus, which originated in Wuhan and was widely seeded there, was eradicated from that city.
I'd be very interested to know if it wasn't through lockdown measures and I'm sure many governments would be interested to know as well.
I have never said that lockdown measures may not contribute to a reduction in virus transmission.

What I said was that a) Lockdown measures are only a temporary solution and b) there is no evidence that “properly implemented lockdown measures work”.

To that extent as per my post above. It is possible that a whole range of factors contributed to the situation you refer to in Wuhan. As yet, we are not at all clear and therefore cannot draw any firm conclusions.

Notwithstanding the fact t that we have pretty limited information regarding the situation in China.
 
There was a thread titled most Paranoid poster last week so if you think I stalk you, I may suggest you fit it perfectly. Bored now so I’m off.
 
There was a thread titled most Paranoid poster last week so if you think I stalk you, I may suggest you fit it perfectly. Bored now so I’m off.
If I could be arsed, I’d provide you with countless examples. Don’t try gaslighting me 👎
 
Just to get back on topic, personally I think that the Lancet article is clear evidence that a properly enforced lockdown (combined with other non medical interventions like T & T) can and does work. BFC has not attempted to explain China's success in fighting the virus if not through enforced lockdown despite it being the source of this outbreak, just posting to say that the reasons for their success are inconclusive.
Edit to add - you may not be able to see the Lancet article because it is paywalled. Essentially it just describes the lockdown measures imposed and how they were implemented, whilst making a cursory comparison with the US and UK.
I'm not going to post on this one again, it's really pointless.
 
Just watching Nicola Sturgeon live, Scotland going into total lockdown from midnight for rest of January.
 
I agree that others have struggled too. But are you saying that we should ease off on criticising how inept our Government has been because others have been inept as well? It's not an argument that holds much water. The public enquiry that surely must follow, and the production of a revised emergency planning strategy, will bear close watching.

It isn't just the Government's fault of course. The UK population hasn't always helped itself.
Misinterpret away all you want. My point is simply that every other European country has struggled to come to terms with this virus. Lockdowns of any description haven't worked in any country. Do I really need to remind you how over the last nine months or so all you so called experts telling people on here how well the rest of Europe were doing compared to us. Yet amazingly figures are still rising in those countries too. Very easy for the likes of your self and of course the left wing extremists to do nothing but pour scorn on what is an incredibly sad situation. Read this message board for goddam sake and see how many fcuking experts there are. And how many telling us what we should be doing. My conclusion is that there isn't a single expert on here. Just wannabees who really have no idea how to put things right.. People that don't have to make tough decisions. It's not a win/lose situation. It's a lose/lose and the difficulty for those having to make the decisions is which is the lesser of those losses. And whichever decision is taken will always draw criticism from the usual suspects.
 
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