Total Lockdown Inevitable.

seasideone said:
When the WHO reviewed how China dealt with it (as in the report) the strict lockdown was seen as the reason they managed to pretty much eliminate it.

The lockdowns in Oz, Singapore, New Zealand etc where they have been much tighter - again worked.

The biggest problem has been stopping the virus coming back into the country which is why the borders are shut.

It’s simple really 👍
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Being as you made a final effort. I'll do you the courtesy of a reply, before signing off on this...

I understand that Lockdown has reduced transmission... It would be pretty stupid to deny that. However, the fact that lockdown may have contributed to the near elimination of the virus does not mean that would be replicated in every instance. And even in the countries where lockdown has enabled them to regain a certain amount of control, the so called solution remains temporary...At some point, unless an alternative solution (like a vaccine) comes along, then the inevitable will happen and the virus will return... Singapore cannot isolate itself from the rest of the world forever or there will be greater long term consequences...The same applies to Australia, New Zealand etc..

As for the EU / UK etc... We really have no idea whether the kind of lockdown measures implemented elsewhere would have enabled us to gain control or whether that might be possible now or in the future.

What we do know (as advised by the WHO) is that lockdowns are very damaghing to economies and public health, but they can be used as a last resort in order to buy time and as a temporary measure to help reduce transmission levels.
 
If you lockdown properly with the population sticking to the rules you can eliminate it as has been proved.

BUT you need to shut the borders as well to stop fanning the flames.

Of course the only true way out of this is probably the vaccine BUT a proper lockdown does stop transmission in its tracks - and therefore works.

The evidence is clear 👍
 
Just wondering how we can have a complete lockdown, when a lot of the youth today want rave parties and protest about anything they dont agree with.
 
Wizaard said:
How would a virus transmit if you don't meet anyone and get over your own bout?

Edit: Hypothetical, of course, as is a complete lockdown.
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I agree Wiz but it's that word complete. You'll never get that as people have to go out for essentials such as food and have to go for medical reasons to doctors, hospitals etc. And to have a complete lockdown, you'd have to get the whole planet doing it. It would only take the virus to survive in a very small number of people and then it would start spreading again when the lockdown was eased. Especially given how easy and how frequent global travel is nowadays. I do accept though you were speaking hypothetically.
 
BFC_BFC_BFC said:
Track and trace is completely futile when dealing with the levels of infection faced by the U.K. and other EU Countries...

It wouldn’t have mattered how good our system was.
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I thought the point of lockdown 1 was to get the numbers down so track trace isolate would be effective?
 
Loco said:
I thought the point of lockdown 1 was to get the numbers down so track trace isolate would be effective?
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You didn't fall for that, did you?

It was a way of transferring a chunk of UK wealth to their cronies, how many billions and it is still not working properly?

Surprised SERCO hasn't been given the contract to vaccinate everyone, tbh, headed up by Dido's sister
 
tangerine_neil said:
Nah. Shut them all. Emergency food and supplies parcels from outdoor pickup points only. Supermarkets are and always have been one of the biggest problems.
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Outside of hospitals, nursing and rest homes and food processing plants where has been the worst place for transmission of the virus?
Are there stats anywhere for this?
One of the things that baffles me is most people are pottering about doing as much as they can within the guidelines and laws, if people knew of many people being struck down they wouldn't have to be told to stay at home they would just do it!
Is the issue not the lack of facilities and resources in the NHS more than the devastating nature of the illness.
If draconian house arrest for the nation would solve this then let's do it but i have my doubts.
 
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Tangerinemoss said:
You didn't fall for that, did you?

It was a way of transferring a chunk of UK wealth to their cronies, how many billions and it is still not working properly?

Surprised SERCO hasn't been given the contract to vaccinate everyone, tbh, headed up by Dido's sister
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It didn't work in Scotland either, once Nicola lost control in Glasgow.
 
gjr69 said:
Outside of hospitals, nursing and rest homes and food processing plants where has been the worst place for transmission of the virus?
Are there stats anywhere for this?
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Very good question. I'd like to know the answer too.
 
Tangerinemoss said:
At the risk of setting this all off again, I think we have forgotten why we do "lockdowns."

They are not to eliminate the virus, they are to slow down admissions to hospital with Covid symptoms, to keep within manageable limits. This allows the economy to continue, albeit at a reduced level, but were never intended to totally stop transmission.
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No, that's a good point and it will all go off again on here sooner or later whether you or not you say anything.

To prevent the NHS being overwhelmed.
 
C_C_C_Cider said:
Just wondering how we can have a complete lockdown, when a lot of the youth today want rave parties and protest about anything they dont agree with.
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Shouldn't be happening but is a rave in a disused warehouse a place where lots of people have spread the virus? Are there any figures on this, i can see how cramming a load of people into a terraced house and having a party could well be an issue but just how much infection has been spread at raves?
Seems like a bit of a Daily Mail comment without wanting to be rude, i often read the comments section in the Mail and some of the stuff said is crazy but people really believe it. There are people on there who blame the refugees crossing the channel in little boats for everything, including Covid!, next comes leftys, then young people, very few facts though.
 
gjr69 said:
Shouldn't be happening but is a rave in a disused warehouse a place where lots of people have spread the virus? Are there any figures on this, i can see how cramming a load of people into a terraced house and having a party could well be an issue but just how much infection has been spread at raves?
Seems like a bit of a Daily Mail comment without wanting to be rude, i often read the comments section in the Mail and some of the stuff said is crazy but people really believe it. There are people on there who blame the refugees crossing the channel in little boats for everything, including Covid!, next comes leftys, then young people, very few facts though.
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Putting the rave to the side but if people are of the opinion that people failing to comply with restrictions/procedures is a big part of the problem up to now, what makes them think that people will comply with the restrictions/procedures when we are in total lockdown ?
 
SEASIDE2020 said:
Putting the rave to the side but if people are of the opinion that people failing to comply with restrictions/procedures is a big part of the problem up to now, what makes them think that people will comply with the restrictions/procedures when we are in total lockdown ?
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Some people won't comply, I suppose the heavier the punishment and an increased likelihood of being caught and that number of people gets smaller.
I would add that if this was like the bubonic plague or Ebola 99% of people would probably comply.
Maybe a lot of people just aren't scared enough by this illness.
 
ElBurroSinNombre said:
Just to get back on topic, personally I think that the Lancet article is clear evidence that a properly enforced lockdown (combined with other non medical interventions like T & T) can and does work. BFC has not attempted to explain China's success in fighting the virus if not through enforced lockdown despite it being the source of this outbreak, just posting to say that the reasons for their success are inconclusive.
Edit to add - you may not be able to see the Lancet article because it is paywalled. Essentially it just describes the lockdown measures imposed and how they were implemented, whilst making a cursory comparison with the US and UK.
I'm not going to post on this one again, it's really pointless.
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Do you seriously believe all the info coming out of China is accurate simply because you've read it in the Lancet so it must be true. It really is not hard to find many stories questioning the legitimacy of Chinas claims. First story I saw were claims that their death rate was up to 14 times higher than reported. I'm sorry but anybody starting from the premise that China is this paragon of virtue in their handling of this pandemic imo starts from a position of weakness not strength.
 
20togo said:
Do you seriously believe all the info coming out of China is accurate simply because you've read it in the Lancet so it must be true. It really is not hard to find many stories questioning the legitimacy of Chinas claims. First story I saw were claims that their death rate was up to 14 times higher than reported. I'm sorry but anybody starting from the premise that China is this paragon of virtue in their handling of this pandemic imo starts from a position of weakness not strength.
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If their death rate is 14 times higher its still lower than ours.
 
BFC_BFC_BFC said:
What is it we are wanting people to not do that they are currently doing in order to stop the spread?
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This needs to be made clear, where is the transmission rate at its highest. I would be amazed if anyone at rivington pike this weekend caught the illness from a passing stranger.
Surely easier to police the specific areas where transmission rates are at their highest than locking down the whole country!
My guess is most people catch it at their place of work but do the government have figures for this?
 
gjr69 said:
Some people won't comply, I suppose the heavier the punishment and an increased likelihood of being caught and that number of people gets smaller.
I would add that if this was like the bubonic plague or Ebola 99% of people would probably comply.
Maybe a lot of people just aren't scared enough by this illness.
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Fair points 69, I was just thinking that if compliance is the big problem then it will still be a big problem.

Maybe a lot of people who are not too scared by the illness are young and fit and should not be scared ?

I believe there has been approx 400 fatalities in the UK among those under 60 without an underlying health condition.

For the benefit of the tape, I am addressing your point about people being scared in isolation and I appreciate that there are other issues around this and that other groups may be affected by the actions of those who needn't be scared.

I have always been in the "lock up the vulnerable and let the rest just crack on" camp 69, that is not to say I am right and others are wrong and I appreciate that there are plenty of other options.
 
SEASIDE2020 said:
Fair points 69, I was just thinking that if compliance is the big problem then it will still be a big problem.

Maybe a lot of people who are not too scared by the illness are young and fit and should not be scared ?

I believe there has been approx 400 fatalities in the UK among those under 60 without an underlying health condition.

For the benefit of the tape, I am addressing your point about people being scared in isolation and I appreciate that there are other issues around this and that other groups may be affected by the actions of those who needn't be scared.

I have always been in the "lock up the vulnerable and let the rest just crack on" camp 69, that is not to say I am right and others are wrong and I appreciate that there are plenty of other options.
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I'm with you 2020, vaccinate the vulnerable, keep the next most vulnerable out of the way and let the rest of us look at the stats and take our chances.
 
Wizaard said:
If their death rate is 14 times higher its still lower than ours.
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Wiz - To be honest with you I don't believe the UK stats.

Not in that they are not true but we are perhaps presented with stats that suit them for one reason or another and don't receive stats that might not do so.

That will make you happy !!!!!!!!! :)
 
gjr69 said:
This needs to be made clear, where is the transmission rate at its highest. I would be amazed if anyone at rivington pike this weekend caught the illness from a passing stranger.
Surely easier to police the specific areas where transmission rates are at their highest than locking down the whole country!
My guess is most people catch it at their place of work but do the government have figures for this?
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The trouble is that you’ve got the Police getting on their high horse in the press about Rivington people are hitting Tesco 3-4 times a week and just meeting family & friends indoors as normal...
 
gjr69 said:
I'm with you 2020, vaccinate the vulnerable, keep the next most vulnerable out of the way and let the rest of us look at the stats and take our chances.
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I don't think it's a popular opinion to be fair but I am not sure that being popular is much use ?
 
BFC_BFC_BFC said:
The trouble is that you’ve got the Police getting on their high horse in the press about Rivington people are hitting Tesco 3-4 times a week and just meeting family & friends indoors as normal...
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Indoors is obviously the issue, Rivington shouldn't even have been highlighted, much like that couple walking the dog in Derbyshire months ago.
Where they seriously went wrong was eat out to help out and opening the universities, encouraging people into indoor situations!
That is where it has gone wrong and the general public can't be blamed, the government made the wrong calls.
 
20togo said:
Do you seriously believe all the info coming out of China is accurate simply because you've read it in the Lancet so it must be true. It really is not hard to find many stories questioning the legitimacy of Chinas claims. First story I saw were claims that their death rate was up to 14 times higher than reported. I'm sorry but anybody starting from the premise that China is this paragon of virtue in their handling of this pandemic imo starts from a position of weakness not strength.
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We are talking about the effectiveness of lockdowns and in particular the evidence that the lockdown in Wuhan had worked in the first instance. I sited a peer reviewed paper from the Lancet a highly respected UK based medical journal that talked about the effectiveness of the lockdown. Here is some more evidence that the lockdown was effective, this time from the BBC, a respected UK based news outlet;

www.bbc.co.uk

Wuhan coronavirus: From silent streets to packed pools

Images of crowds at a waterpark festival show how far the city has moved on from its January lockdown.
www.bbc.co.uk

What evidence do you have that the lockdown in Wuhan didn't initially work?
The two sources of evidence that I have sited for my post are not the Chinese government, nor are they connected to the Chinese government as you seem to imply. Nowhere have I said that China is a 'paragon of virtue'. Anyone would think you were just making stuff up.
 
BFC_BFC_BFC said:
No... you’re now only allowed to go outside to exercise once per day and must stay local.

So they are confining people inside when it is safer to be outside.

You couldn’t make it up.
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No mention of exercise only once in his statement, and the guidance is not yet up, you got a source in Whitehall?
 
gjr69 said:
Shouldn't be happening but is a rave in a disused warehouse a place where lots of people have spread the virus? Are there any figures on this, i can see how cramming a load of people into a terraced house and having a party could well be an issue but just how much infection has been spread at raves?
Seems like a bit of a Daily Mail comment without wanting to be rude, i often read the comments section in the Mail and some of the stuff said is crazy but people really believe it. There are people on there who blame the refugees crossing the channel in little boats for everything, including Covid!, next comes leftys, then young people, very few facts though.
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Ok so it's people in houses that spread the virus ,not hundreds at raves or thousands on protests.
 
C_C_C_Cider said:
Ok so it's people in houses that spread the virus ,not hundreds at raves or thousands on protests.
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I dont know, we need some figures, but protests and raves wether you like them or not usually happen outside and this is proven to be safer than a group of relatives meeting in a house when it comes to covid.
 
ElBurroSinNombre said:
We are talking about the effectiveness of lockdowns and in particular the evidence that the lockdown in Wuhan had worked in the first instance. I sited a peer reviewed paper from the Lancet a highly respected UK based medical journal that talked about the effectiveness of the lockdown. Here is some more evidence that the lockdown was effective, this time from the BBC, a respected UK based news outlet;

www.bbc.co.uk

Wuhan coronavirus: From silent streets to packed pools

Images of crowds at a waterpark festival show how far the city has moved on from its January lockdown.
www.bbc.co.uk

What evidence do you have that the lockdown in Wuhan didn't initially work?
The two sources of evidence that I have sited for my post are not the Chinese government, nor are they connected to the Chinese government as you seem to imply. Nowhere have I said that China is a 'paragon of virtue'. Anyone would think you were just making stuff up.
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There was an article in the Times probably around that time, by a Chinese Doctor based in the west who went back to do a report on Wuhan. Some of those photos were also in her report, along with others in train stations and shopping centres.
 
gjr69 said:
I dont know, we need some figures, but protests and raves wether you like them or not usually happen outside and this is proven to be safer than a group of relatives meeting in a house when it comes to covid.
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So if you were in charge races and protests are acceptable
 
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