For those thinking of holidaying abroad in 2021....

Lost Seasider said:
What part of "element of judgement" are you struggling with?
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The bit that’s wrong about the judgement, eg. Pubs can open if you have a scotch egg.

Or the bits that alter all our lives without any clear proof they work?

Is that ok, or do you want some evidence?
 
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Adams Kebab said:
The bit that’s wrong about the judgement, eg. Pubs can open if you have a scotch egg.

Or the bits that alter all our lives without any clear proof they work?

Is that ok, or do you want some evidence?
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Not the clearest of posts but I'll try to answer.

The evidence that lockdown reduces the transmission of the virus is pretty much indisputable (see "the lockdown"), and I hope you'll agree that it would be a pretty bizarre lockdown that said schools and hairdressers have to close but the pubs and restaurants are still open.

In light of the above it is also pretty much unarguable that relaxing lockdown restrictions risks increasing the reproduction rate and consequently the number of cases.

In terms of evidence of the effect of specific sectors on the R rate, that is the entire point of a phased relaxation, to gather evidence of the effect of the restrictions and their withdrawal before progressing to the next round of relaxations.

If you have a better idea how to go about this I'm sure we'd all be happy to hear it.
 
Was about to use my KLM voucher for weekend in Holland at end of September but after reading this might leave it another month
 
BJ saying Europe's 3rd wave is going to be felt in the UK.

I think this knocks any idea of foreign holiday relaxations in to touch (in terms of the op topic) and probably the more mundane relaxations too.
 
fcblackpool said:
BJ saying Europe's 3rd wave is going to be felt in the UK.

I think this knocks any idea of foreign holiday relaxations in to touch (in terms of the op topic) and probably the more mundane relaxations too.
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My reading of it is that Europe are currently experiencing a wave of cases associated with the so-called 'Kent' variant. Certainly in France this variant is spreading quickly and is responsible for the majority of cases. We have already had our wave with this variant in December / January and luckily the vaccines work against it. Hopefully, it shouldn't make too much difference to us with over 50% of the adult population immunised and 10 or 15 million having had Covid (so should have some immunity).
 
ElBurroSinNombre said:
My reading of it is that Europe are currently experiencing a wave of cases associated with the so-called 'Kent' variant. Certainly in France this variant is spreading quickly and is responsible for the majority of cases. We have already had our wave with this variant in December / January and luckily the vaccines work against it. Hopefully, it shouldn't make too much difference to us with over 50% of the adult population immunised and 10 or 15 million having had Covid (so should have some immunity).
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What proportion of those vaccinated have also had covid?
 
Lost Seasider said:
Not the clearest of posts but I'll try to answer.

The evidence that lockdown reduces the transmission of the virus is pretty much indisputable (see "the lockdown"), and I hope you'll agree that it would be a pretty bizarre lockdown that said schools and hairdressers have to close but the pubs and restaurants are still open.

In light of the above it is also pretty much unarguable that relaxing lockdown restrictions risks increasing the reproduction rate and consequently the number of cases.

In terms of evidence of the effect of specific sectors on the R rate, that is the entire point of a phased relaxation, to gather evidence of the effect of the restrictions and their withdrawal before progressing to the next round of relaxations.

If you have a better idea how to go about this I'm sure we'd all be happy to hear it.
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Not the clearest and most evidence based post but I’ll try and answer you and hope everyone is happy to hear it.

Once the most vulnerable have been offered a vaccine (all over 50s plus all other vulnerable groups), all coronavirus restrictions should end.

It’s time that people were able to make their own “element of better judgement”.
 
ElBurroSinNombre said:
The problem we have got with new variants is that we cannot effectively close our borders because we are not self-sufficient in food and our economy relies on import / export. So stopping people from travelling with the hope of stopping new variants from entering the UK is a really a futile measure. The best it will do is to delay the arrival of some of the mutants. The SA variant is now established in France (10% of all new cases) and so it is only a matter of time before it is established here (in fact it may already be here as there are reports of isolated cases in several different areas).
I will follow government advice but as stated above not everyone travels to holiday, some travel because their families live abroad, business etc. I do find it odd that while last year I was able to visit Italy twice for a total of about four weeks between the lockdowns, this year I may not be able to do that despite the fact that I will have been fully vaccinated. Covid is a seasonal virus and case numbers will drop in summer time throughout Europe like they did last year. And as stated above, it is impossible to vaccinate the whole world and so there will always be a risk of a new mutation arising.
Personally I think that the government advice and regulation will change as the situation evolves. The end of July is four months away and everything will be completely different then. The government are trying to dampen expectation which is a far better approach than the previous 'we are not cancelling Christmas' approach that caused carnage in January.
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Didn't drop here as the upward trend started as soon as the schools went back or straight he Eat Out To Help Out Scheme concluded
 
TwelveAngryMen said:
Didn't drop here as the upward trend started as soon as the schools went back or straight he Eat Out To Help Out Scheme concluded
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So it did drop to low levels during the summer months (see the graph) but then increased in the autumn as people spent more time indoors.

www.statista.com

Coronavirus case numbers in the UK since February 2020 | Statista

In early-February, 2020, the first cases of the coronavirus (COVID-19) were reported in the United Kingdom (UK).
www.statista.com www.statista.com
 
Moved last years summer holiday on to this July and now it looks like we won’t be doing that either. Worked all the way thru this panademic, split with homeschooling so basically had no time to recharge the batteries and now no summer holiday to look forward to. Again. What a shit life we are leading and clearly with very little sign of change in the future.

A couple of weeks ago we were told all the vaccines are suitable to cope with variants of the virus. No doubt we will be advised to holiday and the UK, with all it’s joys of shit weather, extortionatate train fares, costs of petrol, entry prices etc.
 
Foreign holidays shouldn’t be considered this year IMHO. Something somebody said the other day got me thinking about lots of our poorer members of society & how they’ve fared with no work. For instance the sex trade, that could be a challenge at 2 metres, or would it be double bagged with a wet suit & breathing apparatus, that In it’s self conjures up some rather weird images, it might encourage the fetishises. I wonder if those involved were furloughed?
 
TwelveAngryMen said:
Time to reassess IMO

Always said it was madness for the Gov't to allow it until we'd all been vaccinated however with rising rates in the EU maybe we need to take collective responsibility here
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Tim, we have a River Cruise from last year which was put back to late June this year.
Can't see it happening now, have to wait until next year I think. 😟
 
Aint bothering the Germans apparently they are flocking on mass to Spanish islands. Poor Spanish locked down of course. The real EU master is off to Lanzarote.
 
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Looks like common sense prevails

Protests and demonstrations will become legal again from Monday but travel will provisionally be banned until the end of June, according to draft regulations published today.

However, they extend the current ban against non-essential travel until coronavirus restrictions expire at the end of June. People who sneak out of the country or are caught at the airport trying to do so face fines of £5,000.

The regulations are certain to pass as they are backed by opposition parties but lockdown-sceptic Tory backbenchers are planning to rebel over “authoritarian” extensions of government powers.

Johnson’s spokesman has insisted that an extension to emergency powers are needed to ensure that furlough payments and other measures could continue “as long as they are needed”.

A 94-page statutory instrument published today extends coronavirus restrictions until June 30 although ministers must review them every 35 days.
 
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gjr69 said:
Personally I will always want my holidays abroad, going to Newquay, Bournemouth or Scarborough is just not an option I want to take but maybe others will. There are some places in the UK that i like to visit but it is the different sights, sounds, food and obviously the sunshine that I I enjoy when I travel abroad.
Work wise the pandemic hasn't really changed anything for those of us that do hands on stuff and have to be in a specific location but as you say I'm sure office workers will not go back to the old ways.
Hopefully that and the speeded up decline of the high street are the only things that dont go back to normal and maybe the big companies losing their presence in town centres will improve them, but I dont want to be left with annual jabs, constant mask wearing, track and trace and limits on who I see and where. That is the big worry for me, Governments like control and power, will they want to give it up?
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You'd think a Blackpool message board would be heavily in favour of UK based holidays 1
 
Wizaard said:
You'd think a Blackpool message board would be heavily in favour of UK based holidays 1
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I've worked in loads of bars and hotels in Blackpool and St Anne's in my younger years, and a lot of people enjoy them, just not my idea of a holiday. Probably something to do with wanting a change of scene, not a lot of point in me going on holiday to an English seaside resort when I already live in one.
If I cant go abroad North Yorkshire, Cumbria, Scotland possibly Norfolk might be an option but for me they dont compare with mountain villages in Andalucia or Granada, Cordoba or Malaga. I love Rome as well and the South west of France. I'm just making it worse now listing them!!
 
gjr69 said:
I've worked in loads of bars and hotels in Blackpool and St Anne's in my younger years, and a lot of people enjoy them, just not my idea of a holiday. Probably something to do with wanting a change of scene, not a lot of point in me going on holiday to an English seaside resort when I already live in one.
If I cant go abroad North Yorkshire, Cumbria, Scotland possibly Norfolk might be an option but for me they dont compare with mountain villages in Andalucia or Granada, Cordoba or Malaga. I love Rome as well and the South west of France. I'm just making it worse now listing them!!
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Buy a bottle of San Miguel and put some Julio Inglesias on and you’re sorted 😁
 
Adams Kebab said:
Not the clearest and most evidence based post but I’ll try and answer you and hope everyone is happy to hear it.

Once the most vulnerable have been offered a vaccine (all over 50s plus all other vulnerable groups), all coronavirus restrictions should end.

It’s time that people were able to make their own “element of better judgement”.
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You understand that the vaccine is only about 90% effective at preventing death and about 60% effective at preventing infection?

You understand that not everyone in the JCVI groups 1 - 9 has been or can be vaccinated?

You understand that the virus can have serious effects on those outside of the phase one priority groups?

You understand that what you're asking for is potentially millions of new cases and tens of thousands of additional deaths?

Most importantly, you understand that what you're saying is "let's throw caution to the wind and have a massive p*** up" because you're fed up with lockdown and want to go on the lash with your mates.
 
Lost Seasider said:
You understand that the vaccine is only about 90% effective at preventing death and about 60% effective at preventing infection?

You understand that not everyone in the JCVI groups 1 - 9 has been or can be vaccinated?

You understand that the virus can have serious effects on those outside of the phase one priority groups?

You understand that what you're asking for is potentially millions of new cases and tens of thousands of additional deaths?

Most importantly, you understand that what you're saying is "let's throw caution to the wind and have a massive p*** up" because you're fed up with lockdown and want to go on the lash with your mates.
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We can't live like this forever, at some point soon we should just get on with living normally.
 
So if they’re bothered about the uk getting the 3rd wave why not close all the bloody borders to stop it getting into the uk. Jeez
I think they’ve done this so everybody will holiday in the uk to reel some money back in
 
gjr69 said:
We can't live like this forever, at some point soon we should just get on with living normally.
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Agreed, but the question is do you open up slowly and measure the effect of the relaxations as you go along or simply say f*** it and throw caution to the wind.
 
Lost Seasider said:
Agreed, but the question is do you open up slowly and measure the effect of the relaxations as you go along or simply say f*** it and throw caution to the wind.
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I'd like to think there is a plan, but if this virus keeps mutating and the jabs can't keep up with it, then we reach a point where we have to take our own decisions and deal with the consequences.
 
Lost Seasider said:
You understand that the vaccine is only about 90% effective at preventing death and about 60% effective at preventing infection?

You understand that not everyone in the JCVI groups 1 - 9 has been or can be vaccinated?

You understand that the virus can have serious effects on those outside of the phase one priority groups?

You understand that what you're asking for is potentially millions of new cases and tens of thousands of additional deaths?

Most importantly, you understand that what you're saying is "let's throw caution to the wind and have a massive p*** up" because you're fed up with lockdown and want to go on the lash with your mates.
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I understand fine thanks, but you don’t understand what I’m saying you plum.

Fed up with lockdown?? Well who isn’t?! I’m not arsed about a piss-up although I would like to socialise with my mates yes. Primarily, I want to earn a proper living myself, see my friends businesses and their jobs survive, I want to be able to go the gym to keep healthy, build my immune system (you might not know about this cos the government don’t mention it much), go out for food with my family, see my kids take part in their sporting activities, go see my mum and dad without them worrying if the neighbours will wonder if we have a social bubble. Just normal every day stuff, I know that might be mad to think for you to imagine especially the bit about “socialising with mates”, but that’s all I’m asking.

90% deaths is pretty good you know, do you understand that people die, that’s how life works? Or are you wanting to bring people back to life. 17 died today (which is 17 too many before you roll that out) but don’t forget *within 28 days of a positive test.
Millions of new cases?? Well we’ve tested 1.8m people today and there’s only just over 5,000 positive tests and with a false positive rate that’s not bad at all.

What happened to data not dates?? Or is it only bad data that changes things?

If you think that warrants non-essential retail and gyms opening in 3 weeks and then another 8 weeks for indoor hospitality then you must have landed from button moon or have zero social life or money worries. If you’re so scared and such a little lockdown hero, then you stay at home, let the rest of us crack back on as everyday life comes at a risk, but enjoying yourself and seeing those around you doing it to is a risk worth taking.
 
Well said AK what was the point of the vaccine in the first place if we are still to stay shut as a country.
Forget April hardly anything will be open in hospitality just a few beer gardens so we wait for 2 months until middle of May to be allowed some normality and as a restaurant owner told me today they won't be opening then as SD measures(spoke to Wyre council) will still be in place and they would only be able to serve 15 covers.

So we trundle on to June twelve flaming weeks away billions more in debt, businesses gone under and an increase with people in the dole queue and some are worried about a holiday to Spain.
 
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poolseasider said:
Well said AK what was the point of the vaccine in the first place if we are still to stay shut as a country.
Forget April hardly anything will be open in hospitality just a few beer gardens so we wait for 2 months until middle of May to be allowed some normality and as a restaurant owner told me today they won't be opening then as SD measures(spoke to Wyre council) will still be in place and they would only be able serve 15 covers.

So we trundle on to June twelve flaming weeks away billions more in debt, businesses gone under and an increase with people in the dole queue and some are worried about a holiday to Spain.
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Just want to point out I'm not worried about a holiday in Spain I just prefer them to holidays in the UK.
The bigger picture here is getting back to normal every day life in this country for the reasons that AK mentions and probably many others.
 
michellebutterflyhotel said:
So if they’re bothered about the uk getting the 3rd wave why not close all the bloody borders to stop it getting into the uk. Jeez
I think they’ve done this so everybody will holiday in the uk to reel some money back in
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Regardless of the reason, I'm ok with it if the economy gets a boost and the risk is reduced through stopping overseas travel for frivolous reasons.
 
poolseasider said:
Well said AK what was the point of the vaccine in the first place if we are still to stay shut as a country.
Forget April hardly anything will be open in hospitality just a few beer gardens so we wait for 2 months until middle of May to be allowed some normality and as a restaurant owner told me today they won't be opening then as SD measures(spoke to Wyre council) will still be in place and they would only be able to serve 15 covers.

So we trundle on to June twelve flaming weeks away billions more in debt, businesses gone under and an increase with people in the dole queue and some are worried about a holiday to Spain.
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I’ve even forgot to mention going the match! Home games with the kids or an all day trip for an away game! But that’s what these lockdowns do, it’s like we have to be grateful to sit on a fuckin park bench.

it’s only 3 more weeks... it’s only November to save Christmas, it’s only one Christmas, be normal next year... it’s only January till we vaccinate the vulnerable...

Some people have LOST all sense of reality, imagine just wanting your freedoms back as early as possible, terrible!
 
michellebutterflyhotel said:
They’re still letting all and sundry into the uk though so how they’re gunna stop the spread. They need to use common sense and close all the borders till it’s under control worldwide.
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Meanwhile Iceland don't let anyone in unless tested at the border and clear, and even then they have to quarantine for 10 days.

Still, they have the advantage of being an island...
 
Adams Kebab said:
I understand fine thanks, but you don’t understand what I’m saying you plum.

Fed up with lockdown?? Well who isn’t?! I’m not arsed about a piss-up although I would like to socialise with my mates yes. Primarily, I want to earn a proper living myself, see my friends businesses and their jobs survive, I want to be able to go the gym to keep healthy, build my immune system (you might not know about this cos the government don’t mention it much), go out for food with my family, see my kids take part in their sporting activities, go see my mum and dad without them worrying if the neighbours will wonder if we have a social bubble. Just normal every day stuff, I know that might be mad to think for you to imagine especially the bit about “socialising with mates”, but that’s all I’m asking.

90% deaths is pretty good you know, do you understand that people die, that’s how life works? Or are you wanting to bring people back to life. 17 died today (which is 17 too many before you roll that out) but don’t forget *within 28 days of a positive test.
Millions of new cases?? Well we’ve tested 1.8m people today and there’s only just over 5,000 positive tests and with a false positive rate that’s not bad at all.

What happened to data not dates?? Or is it only bad data that changes things?

If you think that warrants non-essential retail and gyms opening in 3 weeks and then another 8 weeks for indoor hospitality then you must have landed from button moon or have zero social life or money worries. If you’re so scared and such a little lockdown hero, then you stay at home, let the rest of us crack back on as everyday life comes at a risk, but enjoying yourself and seeing those around you doing it to is a risk worth taking.
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The staggered opening is absolutely necessary (essential even). It’s something we should have done last time and has cost us dearly as a result.

There’s a number of reasons why it is important to donor this way, rather than just jump in with our size tens. Not least that we gain a better understanding of the particular measures and the level of impact they have on transmission, which will likely impact on future prevention strategy, if needed.
 
Lost Seasider said:
You understand that the vaccine is only about 90% effective at preventing death and about 60% effective at preventing infection?

You understand that not everyone in the JCVI groups 1 - 9 has been or can be vaccinated?

You understand that the virus can have serious effects on those outside of the phase one priority groups?

You understand that what you're asking for is potentially millions of new cases and tens of thousands of additional deaths?

Most importantly, you understand that what you're saying is "let's throw caution to the wind and have a massive p*** up" because you're fed up with lockdown and want to go on the lash with your mates.
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And the p@ss up last summer went well didn’t it, no effect at all on infections and deaths.
 
BFC_BFC_BFC said:
The staggered opening is absolutely necessary (essential even). It’s something we should have done last time and has cost us dearly as a result.

There’s a number of reasons why it is important to donor this way, rather than just jump in with our size tens. Not least that we gain a better understanding of the particular measures and the level of impact they have on transmission, which will likely impact on future prevention strategy, if needed.
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But we hadn't vaccinated half the population last time we re-opened after Lockdowns and when it's 99% of the over 50's who have ended up in hospital and they have mainly had the jab, now is the time to get the economy moving and open up the virus is going nowhere.
 
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I’d hoped for some travel by September, but if it’s still detrimental to our nations recovery then obviously I’ll be happy to wait.
As others have said, it’s not the end of the world and I’d rather not bother than risk another wave and another long hard lockdown.
 
The point is that even if every adult in the U.K. is vaccinated, and some won’t, either because they can’t due to medical conditions, or they refuse. Then you have all the under 18s who won’t be vaccinated.

Add to that the fact that the virus is now raging again in Europe and you have to come to the conclusion that holidays in Europe are out of the question.

Even those vaccinated can catch a mild version, bring it back and infect others and who knows whether the virus will mutate and our vaccine be useless against it.

Unfortunately, we have to wait yet again, because until it’s eradicated, or under control everywhere in the world, or the whole world has a vaccine which covers all mutations, plus the ability to deliver it, this virus will find ways to get us.

Of course there’ll come a point when balance will have to be struck, taking account of the risks involved.
 
BFC_BFC_BFC said:
The staggered opening is absolutely necessary (essential even). It’s something we should have done last time and has cost us dearly as a result.

There’s a number of reasons why it is important to donor this way, rather than just jump in with our size tens. Not least that we gain a better understanding of the particular measures and the level of impact they have on transmission, which will likely impact on future prevention strategy, if needed.
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After 12 months should we not already have a better understanding of the measures that the level of impact have on transmission?

It always seems that stuff can be taken away or shut down without the above but to come back we need to research etc. but generally it’s just made up as they go along.

The vaccine rollout has been brilliant, we need to take advantage of it and get the economy and people’s mental health moving again.
 
Like most on here l do enjoy and miss my holidays abroad and have 3 booked for later this year, but given what we’ve been through in the last 12 months in terms of lockdowns, the sad loss of too many lives, not being able to enjoy even the simplest things in every day life we take for granted, l wouldn’t have any issues if our borders are fully closed until such time that the rest of the world is vaccinated and this disease is brought under control. As long as we can move around our island with limited restrictions then that’ll do for me!
 
When the Roadmap was announced it stated that the earliest date foreign travel would be considered would be mid May and that certain conditions would need to be met beforehand . Even back then Ministers were saying it was too early to consider booking a foreign holiday and have repeated similar messages since (and these have been strengthened to express concerns about Covid cases in Europe and early foreign travel was looking more unlikely).
Vaccination certificates were always going to be likely (the EU are looking at these sometimes from June) and that the target for all our adult people having receivied a jab was the end of July (and don't forget a second jab 12 weeks later is required for full protection) I just I really can't understand people rushing to book early holidays. But then the airlines and travel companies were stupidly offering deals from as early as March.
Personally, I wouldn't even consider going abroad until the late autumn or winter and only then if other countries have largely completed their vaccination programmes and their Covid rates are low. We have made fantastic progress with our vaccination programme and suppressing infection rates. Everyone is pissed off with the lockdowns, but the sure way to guarantee another one is to import variants from abroad. I would keep our borders and foreign travel tightly controlled until the end of the summer and try to get the UK back to some normality (work, leisure, living) in the intervening period
 
Adams Kebab said:
After 12 months should we not already have a better understanding of the measures that the level of impact have on transmission?

It always seems that stuff can be taken away or shut down without the above but to come back we need to research etc. but generally it’s just made up as they go along.

The vaccine rollout has been brilliant, we need to take advantage of it and get the economy and people’s mental health moving again.
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We possibly should, but a combination of the Public driving the very first lockdown and essentially taking matters into their own hands when Government / Scientists were attempting to graduate measures and the decision to transition out to quickly last year, means we still have limited information.

To simply throw everything open at this stage would be stupid, irresponsible and risk all the effort we have made to get the transmission rates down.

In my view it will be far worse for people’s mental health and the economy if we are forced into a reversal and another lockdown by failing to adopt a more cautious approach to opening up.

It’s the right approach...
 
poolseasider said:
But we hadn't vaccinated half the population last time we re-opened after Lockdowns and when it's 99% of the over 50's who have ended up in hospital and they have mainly had the jab, now is the time to get the economy moving and open up the virus is going nowhere.
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We are opening the economy... We’re just doing it in a sensible, logical and staggered way. It’s happening over a relatively short time frame (all things considered).

You’re making mountains out of molehills.
 
BFC_BFC_BFC said:
We are opening the economy... We’re just doing it in a sensible, logical and staggered way. It’s happening over a relatively short time frame (all things considered).

You’re making mountains out of molehills.
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June you consider a short time away when we are in the March I don't.

Does the vaccine work or not we were told lockdowns are to save the NHS now it seems the goalposts have been moved.
 
Old_Laytonian said:
12 months on and we’re still allowing flights into the country. Yep that makes sense. Are we really monitoring everyone who arrives?
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We are not self sufficient in food and our economy relies on import and export. We cannot simply close our borders because if we did we would starve. This is why it is impossible to stop variants being imported regardless of what the government does with incoming air passengers. However, there are now red list countries where people have to quarantine for two weeks on arrival, at a cost of £1700 in a government 'hotel' - I know of two people who have done this so far, so it is not the case that we are doing nothing about people arriving at airports.
 
poolseasider said:
June you consider a short time away when we are in the March I don't.

Does the vaccine work or not we were told lockdowns are to save the NHS now it seems the goalposts have been moved.
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The vaccine certainly works on the predominant variants, but at this time a significant proportion of the population remains unvaccinated and information on effectively in the real world is limited.

In the scheme of things and with the staggered re-opening of the economy 3 months is nothing.

It enables the Scientists to carefully assess the impact of the phased measures on the spread of virus and also to progress the vaccination process too... Allowing vulnerable groups to have their booster vaccination and those medium risk (high risk of long Covid) to be vaccinated...
 
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