How many points for safety?

Spizz Tony

Spizz Tony

Well-known member
I always relax after we hit 50. My mate thinks this season we will need only 40! Especially if the bottom three keep losing

Apologies for my pessimism
 
Over the last 25 years an average of 47 points have been required to stay up in the championship. The highest number that still got relegated was 54 by Peterborough in 2012. Derby are probably doomed both on points deduction and form. Whilst Reading may have a points deduction they will probably do enough to stay up. I think we should be aiming to get at least 50 points to leave some room for maneuvere
 
Wonder at what point Reading get their points deduction?
Hull averaging about 0.6 a game would suggest that actually the 50 point target will probably more low 40's this season?
 
Averaging a point a game over the season would give you 46 points, which is enough to stay up maybe 75% of the time.

If Barnsley & Cardiff average a point a game for the rest of the season it would set the bar at 41/42 points, so probably anything above that would be enough to survive.
 
We won't go down. 5 game turnaround already with Barnsley having only won 2/16, it looks a fair while before that's likely to happen- stat speaking of course.

The other stat which is a bit more negative is that only Birmingham outside the bottom 6 have scored less.

A combination of those 2 things points to a mid table finish, which tbh I'd have taken pre-season.
 
loose one game to bullshit and we are talking about going down looool fuck sake ! It was just a shit game.... If VAR was in the championship that game would have finished 1 - nil to us. Forest would have ended 2-1 to us if we scored the pen that was stonewall, Coventry would have been 0-0, Millwall wouldnt have beaten us... The only stonewall loss was Huddersfield and Cardiff really, and the team was just settling at that point. Tomorrows game will be tough without keogh but we can beat them. We struggled to deal with the high press from stoke and giving the ball away abit silly and didnt start attacking till the last 10 mins. Dont loose faith over something thats not real. Most of our losses like i just explained were from shithouse refs
 
Blackpoolmad said:
65 points should see us reach 6th spot.

We are going up! Why all the negative remarks?
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I know everyone would love to go up again but I actually love this league - winning a few, competitive games, a Prem atmosphere but none of the huge responsibilities for being in the Prem which is a league where I just don’t think without Ollie’s aging Ho attitude we’d compete very well.
 
4th bottom will be a low number this year. Mid 40’s points will be well safe, especially if further point deductions start happening.
This season will peater out for many sides this year quicker than usual.
 
Anorthstandlad said:
loose one game to bullshit and we are talking about going down looool fuck sake ! It was just a shit game.... If VAR was in the championship that game would have finished 1 - nil to us. Forest would have ended 2-1 to us if we scored the pen that was stonewall, Coventry would have been 0-0, Millwall wouldnt have beaten us... The only stonewall loss was Huddersfield and Cardiff really, and the team was just settling at that point. Tomorrows game will be tough without keogh but we can beat them. We struggled to deal with the high press from stoke and giving the ball away abit silly and didnt start attacking till the last 10 mins. Dont loose faith over something thats not real. Most of our losses like i just explained were from shithouse refs
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The biggest shithouse ever in my 50 odd years watchig football was 100% definitely the arsehole midget at Millwall.
He was clearly shitting himself and gave us nothing. That corner at the ned of the first half we had said it all. Blew for half time.
Cost us 3 points.
 
Blackpoolmad said:
The biggest shithouse ever in my 50 odd years watchig football was 100% definitely the arsehole midget at Millwall.
He was clearly shitting himself and gave us nothing. That corner at the ned of the first half we had said it all. Blew for half time.
Cost us 3 points.
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Even ** bigger shithouse tonight broaddaylight robbery again ! Fuckin fuming
 
if I have my maths right, based purely on the form of the first 17 games Derby will finish 3rd from bottom on 36 pts, with Barnsley and Hull below them. Obviously that won't be how it ends, but it gives you an idea of what safety looks like.
 
All I know is continue the way we are and we'll be safe after 34 games which gives us another 12 games to have a bloody good go at the Play Offs.
 
Derby appear confident it'll be 3 not 9.

EFL making rules up as they go. 🙄.

fanbanter.co.uk

Derby County set for another points deduction as appeal 'to fall on deaf ears' - Fan Banter

Derby County are set for another points deduction as an appeal looks set ‘to fall on deaf ears’ according reports overnight. The Rams’ appeal against a 12-point deduction is unlikely to be successful but a further punishment is expected to be more lenient than first thought. The Championship...
fanbanter.co.uk fanbanter.co.uk
 
Anorthstandlad said:
loose one game to bullshit and we are talking about going down looool fuck sake ! It was just a shit game.... If VAR was in the championship that game would have finished 1 - nil to us. Forest would have ended 2-1 to us if we scored the pen that was stonewall, Coventry would have been 0-0, Millwall wouldnt have beaten us... The only stonewall loss was Huddersfield and Cardiff really, and the team was just settling at that point. Tomorrows game will be tough without keogh but we can beat them. We struggled to deal with the high press from stoke and giving the ball away abit silly and didnt start attacking till the last 10 mins. Dont loose faith over something thats not real. Most of our losses like i just explained were from shithouse refs
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Its the Same when we win people automatically think we’re going to be promoted.

Thats the kind of league it is
 
I think the trouble with this league is that the majority of clubs are only separated by a few points. A couple of weeks ago just 6 points separated 5th from 19th. Win a couple of matches or lose a couple of matches and you can move about 8 or 9 places very quickly. And just about any team can get a result against another, even if it is against current form. I am pleased with our progress, particularly after our slow start and hope and expect that we can avoid another sticky patch. As others have mentioned, I wish we could improve our goal difference. A couple of big wins would do that.
 
Next game we are halfway through the season and as long as Posh don't beat us then they'll be on 19/20 points which means I'd suggest 45 points might be enough this season as Barnsley and Derby are gone.
Why a win on Saturday is huge, takes us to 30 points which would be 11 points off Posh and then in the second half of the campaign we effectively need 5/6 wins.
 
Newholland said:
...first we need to score a fcuking goal... period😉
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It'll be touch and go whether we can stay up as i believe its us or Peterborough for the drop. Lots of people don't agree but Saturdays game is a must win. Then the rest of the season is to maintain a better record than Peterborough with some breathing space. The jan window could provide hope but the recruitment, with the odd exception, has been poor. We need to do better in that department in January.
If we lose on Saturday then I think we'll have to fight tooth and nail to stay up.
 
BISONS said:
It'll be touch and go whether we can stay up as i believe its us or Peterborough for the drop. Lots of people don't agree but Saturdays game is a must win. Then the rest of the season is to maintain a better record than Peterborough with some breathing space. The jan window could provide hope but the recruitment, with the odd exception, has been poor. We need to do better in that department in January.
If we lose on Saturday then I think we'll have to fight tooth and nail to stay up.
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I think it's a must win so that the hysteria currently sweeping the board doesn't get out of hand.

Well stay up comfortably and I still think we can make the playoffs. This division is that tight, a run of wins takes you to where Blackburn are, as they've done since losing 7 0
 
Stats zone: An average of around 47 points has been enough to survive the drop in the Championship, but the magic number has varied significantly over the years. Just 40 points would have beaten the drop (with a superior goal difference) in both 2011-12 and 2015-16, whilst 54 points were not enough to keep Peterborough up in 2012-13.
With the points deduction, I'll take a guess at 45 & the sooner we start to pick up wins the better - starting against Posh ;)
 
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