Johnson resigns

ElBurroSinNombre said:
Candidates so far;

Wallace: good communicator, safe pair of hands, probably favourite at this stage
Javid : no chance but will run
Sunak : probably out of the running after Johnson nobbled him. He did get his own back in rather spectacular style though.
Braverman : no chance, has declared as running
Hunt : too one nation for the current parliamentary party, will run though
Raab : no chance
Mordant : could end up in the final one or two, again sensible
Baker : no chance but has declared that he is running
Tugendhat : too left wing for the current MPs
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It feels a bit weird when I look at that list and Jeremy Hunt seems the one with half a brain.
 
Costero Poderoso said:
Think there needs to be a general election, the benny hill shit show that is the conservative party will appoint another like minded generally useless PM who will have about a 35-40% positive approval from Tories with another 30% or so being ambivalent towards or a best worst candidate.

Like May and Johnson after the first and second round of critical assesments from the Tory party, and the media they will call a snap election in order to cement their position which they will probably win but they wont get much beyond halfway through their first term. Rinse and repeat.
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I think the party is too damaged in the eyes of the country. Labour would win a snap election but not with an overall majority. I think they would have to go into coalition with a resurgent Lib Dems.
 
1966_and_all_that said:
The Parliamentary Tories know that if they choose a Remain leader it will probably hand the next election to Labour. The party would split - perhaps, irrevocably - and the red wall voters would return to their roots.
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id agree Gove or Raab, or someone else similarly deluded about pretty much everything but im not sure that even if a remain leader was chosen that labour can get back in,
 
1966_and_all_that said:
I think the party is too damaged in the eyes of the country. Labour would win a snap election but not with an overall majority. I think they would have to go into coalition with a resurgent Lib Dems.
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in order to even get a hung parliament with labour and lib dems the turnout is going to have to be in the 85-90% region. the Tory party being damaged, would, I think bring committed Tories to vote for whoever was hanging under the Tory banner.
 
Costero Poderoso said:
in order to even get a hung parliament with labour and lib dems the turnout is going to have to be in the 85-90% region. the Tory party being damaged, would, I think bring committed Tories to vote for whoever was hanging under the Tory banner.
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Resurgent Lib Dems ?
 
Mexboroseasider said:
Yes. And I thought his reasons for not resigning were credible and will go some way to protecting his “brand” from being tarnished by association with BJ

ie his duty is to the office and the country and he has an important job to fulfil at a critical time: plus there’s a mechanism for replacing the leader so that’s what should be used.

I suspect the last two will probably be Penny Mordaunt and Rishi Sunak but think Wallace will still be ahead of the other likely contenders - Truss, Hunt, Javid etc.
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Yes agree with that... will the Etonian elites back him... for me it’s them who should do one and bring the Tory party into the 21st century... adults either side of the house would be a welcome change.
 
Costero Poderoso said:
in order to even get a hung parliament with labour and lib dems the turnout is going to have to be in the 85-90% region. the Tory party being damaged, would, I think bring committed Tories to vote for whoever was hanging under the Tory banner.
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Really? Look to North Shropshire, to Tiverton and Honiton and to the last round of local elections. The by-elections were massive swings in Tory heartlands. My view is that there would be more to come in a snap election: look out Dominic Raab, Jeremy Hunt, Jacob Rees-Mogg and many others. The Tories are 16 points adrift in the South West & the South East, 14 points in the East and 11 points in London. Yes, these polls usually tighten around the time of a GE but we still have the gory spectacle of the Conservative leadership election campaign to come; played out whilst Johnson remains titular leader of the country.
 
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Scaramanga said:
Resurgent Lib Dems ?
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What resurgent Libs they usually do well at local elections they've been hovering around the 11-13% in the opinion polls for a while(12% of votes last GE).
seasideone said:
Bottom line is Labour have got what they wished for 👍 …and that may not work out how they wanted - we will see.

As a true Tory I am absolutely delighted he has gone as well 😎
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I agree this could be the new manager bounce which happens in football with incoming PM.
Labours biggest problem is the man at the top,the country still don't like Starmer he should be miles ahead in the Polls which he ain't, the best thing to happen would be he to be fined so we can get rid of two crap leaders in one go.
 
Shandypants said:
Did anyone see that utter moron Suella Braverman on Peston last night. Toe curling shite, she threw her hat in the ring for the leadership contest and went on a weird speech about lowering tax, stopping boats crossing the Channel and leading the fight against wokeism (that was it). British politics taken down to the lowest common dominator, ruled by thick people for thick people.
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1966_and_all_that said:
Really? Look to North Shropshire, to Tiverton and Honiton and to the last round of local elections. The by-elections were massive swings in Tory heartlands. My view is that there would be more to come in a snap election: look out Dominic Raab, Jeremy Hunt, Jacob Rees-Mogg and many others. The Tories are 16 points adrift in the South West & the South East, 14 points in the East and 11 points in London. Yes, these polls usually tighten around the time of a GE but we still have the gory spectacle of the Conservative leadership election campaign to come; played out whilst Johnson remains titular leader of the country.
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i think by-elections and local elections have a different elector make up to general elections, based on the general turouts. Honiton only had about 50% turnout so maybe the Tories stayed home that night. I might be wrong about tories staying home for a GE so a low turnout might be the way that Tories are ousted, personally and based on past voting records i just dont see it.
 
Costero Poderoso said:
i dont think anyone could say boris despite all the education was in any way smart, chucking out some latin whenever you get flustered is not a sign of intelligence, May also was dumb as a bag of frogs, and lets not even go anywhere near Cameron.
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Raab has ruled himself out. Apparently he thought he literally had to run and felt unfit.
 
Labour seem over the moon about him going, that must mean they feared he would win the next general election if he had stayed
 
Costero Poderoso said:
i dont think anyone could say boris despite all the education was in any way smart, chucking out some latin whenever you get flustered is not a sign of intelligence, May also was dumb as a bag of frogs, and lets not even go anywhere near Cameron.
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As a Labour man I have to say that Cameron did OK against Corbyn (not a quick thinker) but frequently got bamboozled by Miliband - the best Parliamentary performer since Blair.
 
1966_and_all_that said:
As a Labour man I have to say that Cameron did OK against Corbyn (not a quick thinker) but frequently got bamboozled by Miliband - the best Parliamentary performer since Blair.
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heres a serious question, is parliamentary performance the, or even, an indicator of a good leader or potential leader.
I would say that parliamentary performance is simply theatre, its the public show, either point scoring for the news channels or points scoring with the respective party leaders and / or mechanisms.
 
Costero Poderoso said:
heres a serious question, is parliamentary performance the, or even, an indicator of a good leader or potential leader.
I would say that parliamentary performance is simply theatre, its the public show, either point scoring for the news channels or points scoring with the respective party leaders and / or mechanisms.
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Correct but in modern times, it's critical. There's an American political saying that with his looks and mode of delivery, Abraham Lincoln would stand no chance of being elected today. It's a failing of modern society to indulge the soundbite and dismiss the thought.
 
1966_and_all_that said:
Correct but in modern times, it's critical. There's an American political saying that with his looks and mode of delivery, Abraham Lincoln would stand no chance of being elected today. It's a failing of modern society to indulge the soundbite and dismiss the thought.
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24 hour tv news to blame
 
Shandypants said:
Did anyone see that utter moron Suella Braverman on Peston last night. Toe curling shite, she threw her hat in the ring for the leadership contest and went on a weird speech about lowering tax, stopping boats crossing the Channel and leading the fight against wokeism (that was it). British politics taken down to the lowest common dominator, ruled by thick people for thick people.
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I'm holding out for her.
 
What a farce its been today, a reality show should have been produced, PM Island or PM get me out of here. Maybe Trump could make a move.
 
Matesrates said:
Labour seem over the moon about him going, that must mean they feared he would win the next general election if he had stayed
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I think you're wrong on that. I'm a Labour voter and I'm over the moon he's gone because he was debasing our democracy. Some of us put the country before political beliefs. If he'd have stayed, Labour would have won imo. With a new leader, I think it's made Labour's job much more difficult and they will know that but wanted him gone anyway.
 
southshorepool said:
I think you're wrong on that. I'm a Labour voter and I'm over the moon he's gone because he was debasing our democracy. Some of us put the country before political beliefs. If he'd have stayed, Labour would have won imo. With a new leader, I think it's made Labour's job much more difficult and they will know that but wanted him gone anyway.
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I think your right there about it becoming harder for Labour but a lot depends if the voters connect with the new Tory leader something that Keir Starmer seems to struggle with.
I know I'd like Burnham to be leader but if that couldn't be done someone like Yvette Cooper would piss a GE.
 
southshorepool said:
I think you're wrong on that. I'm a Labour voter and I'm over the moon he's gone because he was debasing our democracy. Some of us put the country before political beliefs. If he'd have stayed, Labour would have won imo. With a new leader, I think it's made Labour's job much more difficult and they will know that but wanted him gone anyway.
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My thoughts exactly ....... but if the Tories selected Braverman ....
 
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