Biden to Win -Just

TwelveAngryMen said:
That's also subject to issues over whether to admit late postal submissions - most of which will be for Biden
Could get messy
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Yes. But I don’t think there’s anyway they can stop the count. What would probably happen is that some of the votes might be contested after they have been declared and that’s where the Supreme Court might have a role to play.

The difference is that if the count was stopped now, we’d never know whether Biden would have won in certain swing states. If the count is challenged after it’s been finished, then everyone wknow who the winner would have been.

My knowledge of US constitutional law is pretty much zero but I suppose they’d have to produce some evidence of wide scale fraud besides Trump’s hot air.

There’s also the issue of the Supreme Court in each State and the US Supreme Court which Trump is talking about. There have already been a few challenges on certain issues before election day where decisions have been made at state level by the State Supreme Court and where the federal Supreme Court has refused to get involved. Amy Coney Barret didn’t take part in those decisions.
 
Robbie,

re the democrats performance and the pollsters, i'd say 2 things.

re the democrats - it really doesn't matter as long as Biden wins. Given his age and apparent fragility a second term might be out of the question anyway...
re the pollsters - they are either guilty of not polling where it counts or the lack of credible choice means that decisions are truly being made at the ballot. Seems to me that you either have the Trump lovers or the Trump haters. They know who they're voting for. For everyone else it's a buggers muddle where there's really no quality choice.
 
The Governor of Pennsylvania just gave short shrift to the idea of any external interference in the count.

Interestingly, the size of the count has just gone from 75 to 78% there and Trump's lead is down to about 8.5%. It looks like being close.
 
straightatthewall said:
Robbie,

re the democrats performance and the pollsters, i'd say 2 things.

re the democrats - it really doesn't matter as long as Biden wins. Given his age and apparent fragility a second term might be out of the question anyway...
re the pollsters - they are either guilty of not polling where it counts or the lack of credible choice means that decisions are truly being made at the ballot. Seems to me that you either have the Trump lovers or the Trump haters. They know who they're voting for. For everyone else it's a buggers muddle where there's really no quality choice.
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I understand where you are coming from.

Another way of looking at Biden's performance is that he is up about 3% on what Clinton did, and will comfortably win the popular vote as well.

Incidentally, I've just read that they think turnout could be up from 58% to close to 67% ; not that impressive in our terms, but would be their highest percentage turnout since 1900.
 
basilrobbie said:
That did baffle me a bit, as well. Along with thanking the American public for their support, when he is losing the popular vote as well.

It's interesting that most of the layers still have Biden a narrow favourite in Pennsylvania, despite the fact he is currently a good way behind. It will be a major surprise if he doesn't win Michigan, he looks like squeaking it in Wisconsin and the bookies have him a clear favourite in Arizona and Nevada. I think it is possible that he could have exactly 270 votes, or maybe 290, and if he gets very lucky in Georgia he could end up with exactly the same number of college votes as Trump got last time. And don't start me on the fourth District vote in Maine.....

There are three things that stand out for me :

  • this looks an underwhelming performance from the Democrats, whether they win or not. Given how Trump has performed this year, this should have been a clear win, really
  • the polling industry will have to look hard at its own performance yet again - they look to have got this significantly wrong, in a significant number of place and/or demographics
  • the electoral system in the US is absolutely shocking. I don't so much mean the college, but the wildly different rules on counting, the sheer difficulty of voting (especially if you are black, or poor), and the way it lends itself to huge swathes of litigation. Not forgetting, that despite having four years notice it was coming, they are unbelievably dilatory when it comes to organising the simple job of counting. It can't be right that Florida declared with a couple of hours, but Nevada with its three men and a dog are still undeclared and having a rest until tomorrow afternoon

High popcorn count though.
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It might be too early to conclude the polls are way out for two reasons.

First, although the national polls always said Biden had a strong lead, in the swing states that was always going to be much narrower. So this bunfighisn’t a surprise.

And secondly I heard one Democrat say that what we might be looking at is a slow Blue Wave, and that the Democrat majority might actually be much greater than appears at the moment. We’ll only know once the votes have all been counted.

On the system as a whole I agree absolutely that the speed of counting is abysmal when compared to what we’re used to. But remember the change of government over there isn’t immediate like it is in the U.K. The electoral colleges don’t actually vote until next month I believe, and any change over in President doesn’t happen until next year. And as for the different rules in each state, well state rights are very important to Americans. Each state is much more than administrative authorities and are described as “sovereign” - almost akin to separate countries which are part of a federal union.
 
Mexboroseasider said:
It might be too early to conclude the polls are way out for two reasons.

First, although the national polls always said Biden had a strong lead, in the swing states that was always going to be much narrower. So this bunfighisn’t a surprise.

And secondly I heard one Democrat say that what we might be looking at is a slow Blue Wave, and that the Democrat majority might actually be much greater than appears at the moment. We’ll only know once the votes have all been counted.

On the system as a whole I agree absolutely that the speed of counting is abysmal when compared to what we’re used to. But remember the change of government over there isn’t immediate like it is in the U.K. The electoral colleges don’t actually vote until next month I believe, and any change over in President doesn’t happen until next year. And as for the different rules in each state, well state rights are very important to Americans. Each state is much more than administrative authorities and are described as “sovereign” - almost akin to separate countries which are part of a federal union.
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A bit like the EU then 😉
 
BFC_BFC_BFC said:
It really does make you wonder how close one of the ‘so called’ greatest democracies in the World is to unwittingly devolving into an autocracy.

I think it’s symptomatic of the kind of polarised politics... “I’m right you’re wrong” / intolerance of opposing opinions / views and affects both sides of the political spectrum.
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Agree with your last para particularly. Which is partly why there are just 2 very unlikeable candidates in the running again.
You have to shoehorn yourself into one of 2 categories to have a vote that counts and that’s simply not a feasible or diverse enough democratic playing field in my opinion.
 
basilrobbie said:
The Governor of Pennsylvania just gave short shrift to the idea of any external interference in the count.
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Is that in response to yesterday’s law suit in regards to postal ballots being opened before voting stopped, and the accusation that spoilt Democrat votes were contacted to re-vote?
 
Mexboroseasider said:
It might be too early to conclude the polls are way out for two reasons.

First, although the national polls always said Biden had a strong lead, in the swing states that was always going to be much narrower. So this bunfighisn’t a surprise.

And secondly I heard one Democrat say that what we might be looking at is a slow Blue Wave, and that the Democrat majority might actually be much greater than appears at the moment. We’ll only know once the votes have all been counted.

On the system as a whole I agree absolutely that the speed of counting is abysmal when compared to what we’re used to. But remember the change of government over there isn’t immediate like it is in the U.K. The electoral colleges don’t actually vote until next month I believe, and any change over in President doesn’t happen until next year. And as for the different rules in each state, well state rights are very important to Americans. Each state is much more than administrative authorities and are described as “sovereign” - almost akin to separate countries which are part of a federal union.
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Yep, agree with all that.

And the cumbersome system creakily serves its purpose, until an iconoclast like Trump turns up and stress tests it, to see how he can subvert it for his own gain....
 
I can’t help thinking still that this isn’t over until it’s over, and then even maybe not with plenty of scope for skullduggery.
The Republicans are still making noises about Arizona which still also has a lot of votes to count even though it has already been called for Biden.
 
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Trump's twitter feed is something else, complaining that votes not for him are being counted and added. And that because he has been ahead at some point he wins.
Many of his messages have been removed by Twitter - this is POTUS
Hope that Biden takes PA as well making a legal challenge more difficult
 
basilrobbie said:
The Governor of Pennsylvania just gave short shrift to the idea of any external interference in the count.

Interestingly, the size of the count has just gone from 75 to 78% there and Trump's lead is down to about 8.5%. It looks like being close.
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I've got £10 on at the bookies for Pennsylvania to go blue by precisely 65,000 votes.
 
1966_and_all_that said:
I've got £10 on at the bookies for Pennsylvania to go blue by precisely 65,000 votes.
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I know it doesn't necessarily mean anything, but Paddy Power have cut Biden's odds in Pennsylvania from 8/13 to 4/11 over the last two or three hours. They have him (Biden) at 1/6 to win the whole thing.
 
basilrobbie said:
I know it doesn't necessarily mean anything, but Paddy Power have cut Biden's odds in Pennsylvania from 8/13 to 4/11 over the last two or three hours. They have him (Biden) at 1/6 to win the whole thing.
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1/2 at lunchtime. Going in the right direction. Wonder if you can get a bookies payout even if Trump uses his rigged Supreme Court.
 
Wizaard said:
1/2 at lunchtime. Going in the right direction. Wonder if you can get a bookies payout even if Trump uses his rigged Supreme Court.
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It'll never make the Supreme Court, he can't go without evidence and there's none. I don't think Trump quite understands how the legal process in his own country works, it doesn't move on a whim of an idiot.
 
Lytham_fy8 said:
It'll never make the Supreme Court, he can't go without evidence and there's none. I don't think Trump quite understands how the legal process in his own country works, it doesn't move on a whim of an idiot.
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Plenty of criminal evidence against Trump though that he has been hiding from under the protection of the presidency........ They'll be coming for you Donald!
 
BFC_BFC_BFC said:
Possibly less so, but I wouldn’t be surprised. In terms of my circle I’ve mainly experienced the significant intolerance on the Left, rather than the right.... In fact I’d go as far as to say that personal experience has really opened my eyes to the kind of prescribed thinking and incredible narrow mindedness , racism, classism and general prejudice that I though only existed on the right.

A good example even on here is the complete lack of respect for the democratic Brexit vote (and I say that as someone who voted against).

People seem to pick and choose democracy as and when it suits.
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In my opinion , the best post on this entire thread!

There’s plenty of examples on this very thread , of people picking and choosing democracy as and when it suits!
 
Belpaese said:
In my opinion , the best post on this entire thread!

There’s plenty of examples on this very thread , of people picking and choosing democracy as and when it suits!
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No there aren't....unless you're referring to the RWNJs. You see, lots of people who don't believe in democracy attach themselves to labels: left wing, right wing, hard left, extreme right. It doesn't mean that Liberal Democratic politics can't incorporate left & right wing political thought. It can and it doesn't make it extreme.
 
Belpaese said:
In my opinion , the best post on this entire thread!

There’s plenty of examples on this very thread , of people picking and choosing democracy as and when it
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I think you’re talking about two different things.

Trump is trying to stop votes being counted. That is a direct and blatant attack on democracy.

That’s very different to the example BFCx3 gave. Just because a government is democratically elected or a particular policy is approved by the electorate doesn’t mean the government or the policy can’t be criticised. In fact I’d say that the right to continue to criticise a government or policy, even if it has a democratic mandate, is an integral part of a democracy.
 
What the evil cnut Trump is now alleging is that there were “illegal ballot dumps” at the counts in Wisconsin and Michigan at 04:00 which accounts for Biden overtaking him. When it is really just the huge postal ballot totals from Democrat-leaning cities like Detroit now being counted after those votes that were made in person (and counted first).

Any excuse to try and steal the election. He will have his lawyers going into states to try and get lots of votes declared illegal. He has to do that in each state legal system before it goes Federal and maybe eventually to the Supreme Court. Hopefully, the impartial election officials will just carry on and count every vote. And I have a feeling the Supreme Court would shy away and revert the decision to the States, even if they are 6-3 pro-Republican. It’s far too dangerous for the country for the Supreme Court to be seen stealing the election for Trump.
 
BFC_BFC_BFC said:
Possibly less so, but I wouldn’t be surprised. In terms of my circle I’ve mainly experienced the significant intolerance on the Left, rather than the right.... In fact I’d go as far as to say that personal experience has really opened my eyes to the kind of prescribed thinking and incredible narrow mindedness , racism, classism and general prejudice that I though only existed on the right.

A good example even on here is the complete lack of respect for the democratic Brexit vote (and I say that as someone who voted against).

People seem to pick and choose democracy as and when it suits.
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Too true Bifster. The recent findings about the anti semitism in the Labour party totally dispels the myth that all the nastiness is on the right wing of politics. Just goes to show socialism isn't necessarily the kind, caring politics some would claim, and that Corbyn wasn't the gentle, kind grandad figure that he was portrayed as.
And wasn't it the Tories who were known as the 'nasty party'?
 
RUSTY_2_STANDS said:
Too true Bifster. The recent findings about the anti semitism in the Labour party totally dispels the myth that all the nastiness is on the right wing of politics. Just goes to show socialism isn't necessarily the kind, caring politics some would claim, and that Corbyn wasn't the gentle, kind grandad figure that he was portrayed as.
And wasn't it the Tories who were known as the 'nasty party'?
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Unbelievable!!

"Nasty Socialist"

Says the person who was born in a NHS hospital and had access to free health care all their life, received over a decade of free education, enjoys their weekends and paid holidays, benefits from protection from discrimination, exploitation and abuse at work, receives sick pay if they get ill and expects a pension when they retire!!

Rusty stands???..rusty head more like!
 
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RUSTY_2_STANDS said:
Too true Bifster. The recent findings about the anti semitism in the Labour party totally dispels the myth that all the nastiness is on the right wing of politics. Just goes to show socialism isn't necessarily the kind, caring politics some would claim, and that Corbyn wasn't the gentle, kind grandad figure that he was portrayed as.
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It's always the lefties that seem to demonise their opponents as "scum", not the other way around.
 
Archibald Knox said:
What the evil cnut Trump is now alleging is that there were “illegal ballot dumps” at the counts in Wisconsin and Michigan at 04:00 which accounts for Biden overtaking him. When it is really just the huge postal ballot totals from Democrat-leaning cities like Detroit now being counted after those votes that were made in person (and counted first).

Any excuse to try and steal the election. He will have his lawyers going into states to try and get lots of votes declared illegal. He has to do that in each state legal system before it goes Federal and maybe eventually to the Supreme Court. Hopefully, the impartial election officials will just carry on and count every vote. And I have a feeling the Supreme Court would shy away and revert the decision to the States, even if they are 6-3 pro-Republican. It’s far too dangerous for the country for the Supreme Court to be seen stealing the election for Trump.
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When the Republican State Governor wouldn't allow any counting in advance...
 
kuriousoranj said:
Unbelievable!!

"Nasty Socialist"

Says the person who was born in a NHS hospital and had access to free health care all their life, received over a decade of free education, enjoys their weekends and paid holidays, benefits from protection from discrimination, exploitation and abuse at work, receives sick pay if they get ill and expects a pension when they retire!!

Rusty stands???..rusty head more like!
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Oh the irony. An angry socialist resorting to insults 😂
 
Have to say Kurious/Cat that your last post was actually the best you have made in some considerable time.
Happy to take the NHS services, Roads, Education etc......but god forbid that they have to pay for it through taxation.

Example for the USA......average cost of a ambulance to take you to hospital....$2,000......Insulin injection $300
The 'Socialist' Bevan set up the NHS and an Ambulance and the need for a daily Insulin injection...£0
Strange that some cant see the distinction between being a Socialist and just helping your fellow human being stay alive.....
 
Mexboroseasider said:
I think you’re talking about two different things.

Trump is trying to stop votes being counted. That is a direct and blatant attack on democracy.

That’s very different to the example BFCx3 gave. Just because a government is democratically elected or a particular policy is approved by the electorate doesn’t mean the government or the policy can’t be criticised. In fact I’d say that the right to continue to criticise a government or policy, even if it has a democratic mandate, is an integral part of a democracy.
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You haven’t a clue what I’m taking about.

Yet you have the temerity to lecture me on talking about two different things.

I did not even mention Trump.

Please don’t try and drag my valid post regarding agreeing with what bfcx3 said, into your petty and abusive spats.
 
Belpaese said:
You haven’t a clue what I’m taking about.

Yet you have the temerity to lecture me on talking about two different things.

I did not even mention Trump.

Please don’t try and drag my valid post regarding agreeing with what bfcx3 said, into your petty and abusive spats.
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You’re back then 😂
 
RUSTY_2_STANDS said:
Too true Bifster. The recent findings about the anti semitism in the Labour party totally dispels the myth that all the nastiness is on the right wing of politics. Just goes to show socialism isn't necessarily the kind, caring politics some would claim, and that Corbyn wasn't the gentle, kind grandad figure that he was portrayed as.
And wasn't it the Tories who were known as the 'nasty party'?
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There is no myth that all the nastiness is on the right wing of politics. Where did you get that from?
 
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