So we are close

BFC_BFC_BFC said:
In fairness though you’re not looking objectively at the facts at all. You’re taking a biased opinion and then dismissing anything that doesn’t fit as rubbish.😂

So in essence you’re offering a counter position as opposed to objectivity.

There’s already been a number of different alternative sources all independently reporting different information that all leads us to the same conclusion….looking at that objectively there’s more to suggest an imminent announcement than not.👍
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I think if Duff has gone to Barnsley it just goes to prove the BFC Board read the "due dilligence" you did on him on this board. 😉
 
BFC_BFC_BFC said:
In fairness though you’re not looking objectively at the facts at all. You’re taking a biased opinion and then dismissing anything that doesn’t fit as rubbish.😂

So in essence you’re offering a counter position as opposed to objectivity.

There’s already been a number of different alternative sources all independently reporting different information that all leads us to the same conclusion….looking at that objectively there’s more to suggest an imminent announcement than not.👍
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They’re not ‘independently reporting’ though. They’re seeing the same thing and leaping to the same conclusion.

There are two objective facts now, which is one more than there was a couple of hours ago:
1) Rosenior’s odds dramatically shortened late last week
2) Duff isn’t coming

Both interesting, but neither anywhere near being conclusive proof that we should be hanging on waiting for an imminent announcement.

And once again, I’ll be delighted if I’m wrong. Absolutely delighted.
 
Insider said:
I think if Duff has gone to Barnsley it just goes to prove the BFC Board read the "due dilligence" you did on this board. 😉
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I think “due dilligence” might be stretching it a bit. I doubt it helped that when asked to explain the secret to his success so far, Duff stood up, stripped off his shirt and just started dancing, before slapping Ben M round the face with a wet goalie glove….
 
TKL_Seasider said:
They’re not ‘independently reporting’ though. They’re seeing the same thing and leaping to the same conclusion.

There are two objective facts now, which is one more than there was a couple of hours ago:
1) Rosenior’s odds dramatically shortened late last week
2) Duff isn’t coming

Both interesting, but neither anywhere near being conclusive proof that we should be hanging on waiting for an imminent announcement.

And once again, I’ll be delighted if I’m wrong. Absolutely delighted.
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You don’t get “conclusive proof” until you hear the announcement from the club.

You get a sliding scale of evidence…

So you can either ignore the evidence…. Or you can make a judgement call based on how it all stacks up…

As I said… Putting everything else to one side, the typical timing of the interview process would suggest something is imminent… Unless a) we are interviewing more people this week or b) it takes us over a week to arrive at a decision…
 
BFC_BFC_BFC said:
You don’t get “conclusive proof” until you hear the announcement from the club.

You get a sliding scale of evidence…

So you can either ignore the evidence…. Or you can make a judgement call based on how it all stacks up…

As I said… Putting everything else to one side, the typical timing of the interview process would suggest something is imminent… Unless a) we are interviewing more people this week or b) it takes us over a week to arrive at a decision…
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I think we’re disagreeing purely over the strength of the evidence. Still think it’s super weak and there’s probably more people to speak to. I mean … this is the time of the year when everyone in football goes away, isn’t it?

Guess we’ll see soon.
 
TKL_Seasider said:
I think we’re disagreeing purely over the strength of the evidence. Still think it’s super weak and there’s probably more people to speak to. I mean … this is the time of the year when everyone in football goes away, isn’t it?

Guess we’ll see soon.
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Evidence of what?

Evidence that an announcement is imminent?

Evidence that the new manager will be Liam Risenior?

They are two different things…

There’s more evidence supporting the first statement than the second…
 
Gary said:
Anyone know if Rosenior was at Derby when Keogh was fired off? Wonder how their relationship stands currently. Could be something to watch.
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Wiki says he joined Derby on 10th july 2019 as specialist 1st team coach, so yes he would have been there when Keogh was there.
 
BFC_BFC_BFC said:
Evidence of what?

Evidence that an announcement is imminent?

Evidence that the new manager will be Liam Risenior?

They are two different things…

There’s more evidence supporting the first statement than the second…
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There is, but it’s still weak (and a significant proportion of that … in fact almost all of it) is linked to the betting situation.

My worry is that something like this becomes received wisdom and then there’s a massive meltdown when it doesn’t happen.
 
TKL_Seasider said:
There is, but it’s still weak (and a significant proportion of that … in fact almost all of it) is linked to the betting situation.

My worry is that something like this becomes received wisdom and then there’s a massive meltdown when it doesn’t happen.
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It’s not weak though… And the overwhelming reason is about normal expected timing as opposed to betting or anything else. Basic logic..

The betting has no bearing on anything …. Certainly not the opinions of media pundits… Everyone knows how flimsy the markets are.

Anyway… pointless argument…

Let’s talk about it this evening once Rosenior has been announced 😂
 
If there’s going to be an announcement today, I would expect the bookies would be either moving the odds significantly, or suspending betting on the new manager. As that’s not happened today so far, it looks unlikely to me.
 
BFC_BFC_BFC said:
It’s not weak though… And the overwhelming reason is about normal expected timing as opposed to betting or anything else. Basic logic..

The betting has no bearing on anything …. Certainly not the opinions of media pundits… Everyone knows how flimsy the markets are.

Anyway… pointless argument…

Let’s talk about it this evening once Rosenior has been announced 😂
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Let’s hope so! But I’m afraid you’re greatly overestimating the strength of the information available to various journalists, and massively underestimating the incentive for them to ‘borrow’ information from each other…
 
Matesrates said:
If there’s going to be an announcement today, I would expect the bookies would be either moving the odds significantly, or suspending betting on the new manager. As that’s not happened today so far, it looks unlikely to me.
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Very little information gets out of the Club into the public domain. So nobody has anything to go off.
TKL_Seasider said:
Let’s hope so! But I’m afraid you’re greatly overestimating the strength of the information available to various journalists, and massively underestimating the incentive for them to ‘borrow’ information from each other…
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I’m not over-estimating anything..

Info to Nixon and other Journos will come from Agents and sources outside of BFC…

So things like (timing of interviews, who has been interviewed and the timing of appointments) would all be valid info…

The actual appointment can then be narrowed down by a process of elimination… (even if nothing comes from the appointed managers camp).

It’s also rare for press / pundits to report an unequivocal appointment. Nixon, for example, is careful with his wording (always retaining a get out) unless he is sure of his source.

From my perspective this is playing out exactly as I’d expected…. (I.e. that once we’d concluded our business, we’d see movement on Duff / Barnsley)
 
BFC_BFC_BFC said:
Very little information gets out of the Club into the public domain. So nobody has anything to go off.

Info to Nixon and other Journos will come from Agents and sources outside of BFC…

So things like (timing of interviews, who has been interviewed and the timing of appointments) would all be valid info…
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Bingo. You’ve got it. This information ain’t coming from BFC. Even if we assume every word of it is true and accurate, there’s no reason to believe it’s the whole picture. There are known unknowns. There might be whole dimensions to the process we don’t see clearly. For example, if Rosenior is the man, is there even anyone at Derby who is in a position to sign off his release? Even if we’ve completed the interview process, has there yet been an opportunity to sit the Chosen One down with Mr Sadler? What if they don’t hit it off? What if there’s one candidate who isn’t back in the country to Friday but who we desperately want to speak to? What if Duff backed out because Barnsley told him it was now or never and he realised he only had an outside shot at our job?

Hope you’re right and the white smoke is preparing to emerge. But still not convinced by a long, long stretch.

(And I think I’ll leave it there, if you don’t mind)
 
TKL_Seasider said:
Bingo. You’ve got it. This information ain’t coming from BFC. Even if we assume every word of it is true and accurate, there’s no reason to believe it’s the whole picture. There are known unknowns. There might be whole dimensions to the process we don’t see clearly. For example, if Rosenior is the man, is there even anyone at Derby who is in a position to sign off his release? Even if we’ve completed the interview process, has there yet been an opportunity to sit the Chosen One down with Mr Sadler? What if they don’t hit it off? What if there’s one candidate who isn’t back in the country to Friday but who we desperately want to speak to? What if Duff backed out because Barnsley told him it was now or never and he realised he only had an outside shot at our job?

Hope you’re right and the white smoke is preparing to emerge. But still not convinced by a long, long stretch.

(And I think I’ll leave it there, if you don’t mind)
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You two could cure insomnia !!!!
 
TKL_Seasider said:
Bingo. You’ve got it. This information ain’t coming from BFC. Even if we assume every word of it is true and accurate, there’s no reason to believe it’s the whole picture. There are known unknowns. There might be whole dimensions to the process we don’t see clearly. For example, if Rosenior is the man, is there even anyone at Derby who is in a position to sign off his release? Even if we’ve completed the interview process, has there yet been an opportunity to sit the Chosen One down with Mr Sadler? What if they don’t hit it off? What if there’s one candidate who isn’t back in the country to Friday but who we desperately want to speak to? What if Duff backed out because Barnsley told him it was now or never and he realised he only had an outside shot at our job?

Hope you’re right and the white smoke is preparing to emerge. But still not convinced by a long, long stretch.

(And I think I’ll leave it there, if you don’t mind)
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Of course… There’s a million and one “What if’s” that you can invent, but that’s not the point. I’m not sure anyone is daft enough to think anything is cast in stone based upon the available information…

It’s more a case of taking all the available information and then determining what is the likely situation based upon that info…
 
Seems like the situation at Derby is what's holding up us getting Rosenior. At least that's what a journo on Twitter has just been saying.
 
What we now know is:
- We're not in the business of appointing anyone who does Spotty Dog from the woodentops style dancing
- fist pumps and badge-kissery will not be tolerated within a 10 mile radius in future
- when it come to hypothesising about a limitless set of variables AVFTT is several leagues above the likes of NASA, Segantii etc
- BFC is silicone sealed these days - someone or someone's agent is the nearest to a leak coming from anywhere
- if L-Ro does indeed have a liking for ice cream he's keeping it to himself for now.

I think that's about it for now?
 
Maybe we are in for a shock, Mellon has come into the reckoning but maybe it's because we are looking at a joint appointment of Mellon & Rosenior? I'm not one for co-managers/head coaches but could that be where we are heading?
 
NewburyOne said:
Maybe we are in for a shock, Mellon has come into the reckoning but maybe it's because we are looking at a joint appointment of Mellon & Rosenior? I'm not one for co-managers/head coaches but could that be where we are heading?
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Maybe Rosenior as head coach with Mellon as an experienced second. Someone did say the other day that Rosenior would be coming in with an experienced second behind him.
 
Gary said:
Anyone know if Rosenior was at Derby when Keogh was fired off? Wonder how their relationship stands currently. Could be something to watch.
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They overlapped for a few months, he was there as an individual coach, they may or may not have worked with each other, if they did there's no reason to think there was a problem and the decision to sack Keogh was one that was taken well above his pay level.
 
So we were, after all, fairly close. But I suspect loose ends and bureaucracy at Derby might take a few days, so don’t panic!
 
Looks like we’ve got a preferred candidate at least. I suppose it’s now all about the reason for the delay (ie whether it’s just procedural or whether our man might still be looking for confirmation of where he stands elsewhere)..
 
BFC_BFC_BFC said:
Looks like we’ve got a preferred candidate at least. I suppose it’s now all about the reason for the delay (ie whether it’s just procedural or whether our man might still be looking for confirmation of where he stands elsewhere)..
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Probably to do with dealing with administrators at Derby.
 
Looks like today/tomorrow it'll be annouced. Exciting for Rosenior, not my choice but definitely deserves backing. He'll be keen and hungry and probably know more than enough players to keep us at this level. Maybe he can perform a miracle and get us top 10 who knows.

Either way it's going to be a fun ride, good luck to him.
 
SeasideKurt said:
Looks like today/tomorrow it'll be annouced. Exciting for Rosenior, not my choice but definitely deserves backing. He'll be keen and hungry and probably know more than enough players to keep us at this level. Maybe he can perform a miracle and get us top 10 who knows.

Either way it's going to be a fun ride, good luck to him.
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Agreed, it is a bit of a risk, that said if he can get the right team around him and be given some decent backing, it could prove to be a very exciting season. It wouldn't matter who we appoint, we need to get behind them 100%.
 
SeasideKurt said:
Looks like today/tomorrow it'll be annouced. Exciting for Rosenior, not my choice but definitely deserves backing. He'll be keen and hungry and probably know more than enough players to keep us at this level. Maybe he can perform a miracle and get us top 10 who knows.

Either way it's going to be a fun ride, good luck to him.
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Agree wouldnt be my choice either so young and no experience at number 1 huge risk, lets hope it pays off.
 
The delay could be lots of reasons; dealing with the admins at Derby at such a busy time for them, waiting on our media team doing their stuff or wanting to choose a date that suits LR. I'm sure he'll not want to snake off from Derby and want to do the right thing by Rooney, the other coaches and players.
 
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