1966_and_all_that
Well-known member
An interesting and thoughtful analysis. I would, however pick you up on one assertion: "Assuming historic norms, every vote for the lib dems, or the greens is a vote against labour."how do you encourage 25 to 30% (or 40% even) to vote when they historically don't. Pew research shows that only a handful of countries get over 80% turnouts, even Australia where there is a Legal obligation to vote only gets just over 90%.
The US got 90 plus percent registered elector turnout in the last election, many obviously voting to keep a particularly insidious candidate out. Saying that only 60% or so of the voting age people turned out, firstly because regions are massively gerrymandered and secondly because the right have put many restrictions or obstacles on voter registration, and the typical turnout is often below 50%.
In the UK according to some research from i think the LSE from a couple of years ago around 10% of the UK population are die hard labour voters, (it used to be higher but the SNP has taken a large swath) within that there are a large majority who are Never Tory. Around 12-15% are always Tory voters and most of those are never Labour. There are about 10-15% who vote for extreme or radical parties, whether leaning to right, left or greenish issues, or consistently vote lib dems. Right wing radicals will vote tory but many on the hard left generally don't vote for a centrist left party, and centrist leftists have fears of the hard left, and a solid 5-8% have a leaning towards conservative. That leaves around 25-30% floating voters and 30ish plus percent not voting. Historically Tories need about half the floating voters, the research indicated that a centrist labour party might need more of those floating voters (upwards of 90%) because it will not get the hard left, the hard right or the green or Scottish nationalist vote. Assuming historic norms, every vote for the lib dems, or the greens is a vote against labour.
The floaters and the non voters are enough to get a clear majority and the way the system currently works a landslide in parliament, but I don't see how you change the historic ambivalence to voting when the parties and / or the candidates don't really appeal.
Its easier for a political party to appeal rightwards rather than left because western democracy has had a century long ingrained cultural fear of hard socialism (communism), but doesn't see the same problem with an extreme authoritarian and elitist capitalist system, because again its in grained into us.
You only have to look at the post above this to see where a lack of capacity to think critically leads a very small minority to think that Braverman is a useful part of Government, Parliament or even society.
This time around I think there will be large numbers of centre-right leaning voters turning away from the Tories and voting Lib Dem. I think this will happen in the Shires and the suburbs. If anything, this will split the anti-Labour vote in the Midlands and the North - making Labour victories more likely. Whilst in the West Country and the South, I foresee the centre-right Conservative voters moving to the Lib Dems along with some centrist Labour voters, in order to deliver Tory seats to the Lib Dems.