Suella

how do you encourage 25 to 30% (or 40% even) to vote when they historically don't. Pew research shows that only a handful of countries get over 80% turnouts, even Australia where there is a Legal obligation to vote only gets just over 90%.

The US got 90 plus percent registered elector turnout in the last election, many obviously voting to keep a particularly insidious candidate out. Saying that only 60% or so of the voting age people turned out, firstly because regions are massively gerrymandered and secondly because the right have put many restrictions or obstacles on voter registration, and the typical turnout is often below 50%.

In the UK according to some research from i think the LSE from a couple of years ago around 10% of the UK population are die hard labour voters, (it used to be higher but the SNP has taken a large swath) within that there are a large majority who are Never Tory. Around 12-15% are always Tory voters and most of those are never Labour. There are about 10-15% who vote for extreme or radical parties, whether leaning to right, left or greenish issues, or consistently vote lib dems. Right wing radicals will vote tory but many on the hard left generally don't vote for a centrist left party, and centrist leftists have fears of the hard left, and a solid 5-8% have a leaning towards conservative. That leaves around 25-30% floating voters and 30ish plus percent not voting. Historically Tories need about half the floating voters, the research indicated that a centrist labour party might need more of those floating voters (upwards of 90%) because it will not get the hard left, the hard right or the green or Scottish nationalist vote. Assuming historic norms, every vote for the lib dems, or the greens is a vote against labour.

The floaters and the non voters are enough to get a clear majority and the way the system currently works a landslide in parliament, but I don't see how you change the historic ambivalence to voting when the parties and / or the candidates don't really appeal.

Its easier for a political party to appeal rightwards rather than left because western democracy has had a century long ingrained cultural fear of hard socialism (communism), but doesn't see the same problem with an extreme authoritarian and elitist capitalist system, because again its in grained into us.

You only have to look at the post above this to see where a lack of capacity to think critically leads a very small minority to think that Braverman is a useful part of Government, Parliament or even society.
An interesting and thoughtful analysis. I would, however pick you up on one assertion: "Assuming historic norms, every vote for the lib dems, or the greens is a vote against labour."

This time around I think there will be large numbers of centre-right leaning voters turning away from the Tories and voting Lib Dem. I think this will happen in the Shires and the suburbs. If anything, this will split the anti-Labour vote in the Midlands and the North - making Labour victories more likely. Whilst in the West Country and the South, I foresee the centre-right Conservative voters moving to the Lib Dems along with some centrist Labour voters, in order to deliver Tory seats to the Lib Dems.
 
It’s so important for everyone to vote after so many people died in the two world wars to protect our freedom but unfortunately many have lost faith in our politicians now. It’s little wonder as when you look at all parties there are not many that if you were in business you would employ and the expenses scandal when so many claimed expenses that in the commercial world would have got then sacked thought just paying back various amounts made in right. Perhaps having bigger constituencies and say 100 MPs and pay them say 150K but not allowed to have outside jobs would raise the standard of our representatives but would the existing one vote for it🤷🏽‍♂️
 
It’s so important for everyone to vote after so many people died in the two world wars to protect our freedom but unfortunately many have lost faith in our politicians now. It’s little wonder as when you look at all parties there are not many that if you were in business you would employ and the expenses scandal when so many claimed expenses that in the commercial world would have got then sacked thought just paying back various amounts made in right. Perhaps having bigger constituencies and say 100 MPs and pay them say 150K but not allowed to have outside jobs would raise the standard of our representatives but would the existing one vote for it🤷🏽‍♂️
Sorry to point this out today but no one died in WW1 to protect our freedom.
 
SB has to go now.

You can’t have a Home Secretary undermining the police and then whipping up a RW mob who then attack the police force she has responsibility for.

She should apologise and resign tonight. If she doesn’t then Sunak should sack her in the morning.
Is it not reasonable to think that not only are the extremist right white wing mob anti muslim but also anti Jew too?
 
I see that the Tories now trail Labour by 24% according to the latest Yougov poll, somewhat surprisingly I would have thought given Starmer’s recent difficulties.

No doubt Sue Ellen’s recent utterances have been a big factor. She really is the gift that keeps on giving to the Labour Party.
I wonder what J. R thinks about it
 
Irrespective of what SB said, i stand by my view that march should not have took place yesterday. It brought the extreme right out and the violence that followed from them who perhaps would not have been there if the march had been cancelled and deferred for a week. There was also a significant number of arrests also from the "pro" march where a "mob" broke away. You only have to look on the Sky News website to see pictures of deeply offensive banners as well as peoples support of Hamas. So nothing to do with peace whatsoever. It was inevitable there would be trouble on a day/ weekend which should be sacrosanct in the calendar for citizens of this country to remember those live lost. For those of who you were advocating the march should take place then like it or not the weekend has been tarnished by events of yesterday. And it could and should have been so different.
 
Is it not reasonable to think that not only are the extremist right white wing mob anti muslim but also anti Jew too?
I dare say a lot of them are but there’s also a strange alliance (and has been for a number of years) between some of the extremist “white” wing and some extremist Zionists. Here’s a view from an Israeli newspaper.

 
I think it would have been quite simple to hold the march on a different day. So why didn’t they ?

It was so very disrespectful to time it to coincide with Remembrance day. That was the start of the problem and it was 100% unnecessary.

Most of us would have supported a peace protest from afar, had respect been afforded to our war veterans who died awful deaths for this country’s freedoms.

Marching this weekend was highly divisive, contentious and unnecessary.
 
Irrespective of what SB said, i stand by my view that march should not have took place yesterday. It brought the extreme right out and the violence that followed from them who perhaps would not have been there if the march had been cancelled and deferred for a week. There was also a significant number of arrests also from the "pro" march where a "mob" broke away. You only have to look on the Sky News website to see pictures of deeply offensive banners as well as peoples support of Hamas. So nothing to do with peace whatsoever. It was inevitable there would be trouble on a day/ weekend which should be sacrosanct in the calendar for citizens of this country to remember those live lost. For those of who you were advocating the march should take place then like it or not the weekend has been tarnished by events of yesterday. And it could and should have been so different.
Whatever your view, the fact remains the Met had no legal basis to ban the march, and the Commissioner can’t just make up the law as he goes along.

If the intelligence the police had received had suggested they couldn’t control events then the Met could have applied to the Home Secretary to ban the march. But as Rowley said, there was no such intelligence. He acknowledged it’d get messy, and it did, but it was never going to get out of control, and it never did. Even Nadine Dorries on the BBC this morning acknowledged the police decision was right. Plenty of people, including many Tories and Winston Churchill’s grandson, agree.

But anyway, this thread is about Braverman, her incitement of a RW mob Trump style, and her attempts to undermine the police. If she was on the backbenches then she’d be entitled to do that if she wished. But she isn’t. She’s the Home Secretary and has obligations and responsibilities as a result. She has failed to fulfil those and has to go.
 
An interesting and thoughtful analysis. I would, however pick you up on one assertion: "Assuming historic norms, every vote for the lib dems, or the greens is a vote against labour."

This time around I think there will be large numbers of centre-right leaning voters turning away from the Tories and voting Lib Dem. I think this will happen in the Shires and the suburbs. If anything, this will split the anti-Labour vote in the Midlands and the North - making Labour victories more likely. Whilst in the West Country and the South, I foresee the centre-right Conservative voters moving to the Lib Dems along with some centrist Labour voters, in order to deliver Tory seats to the Lib Dems.
you might be right,

just to clarify though, with historical norms i mean the tendency for low voter turnout to benefit right leaning parties, which seems to be true across all western democracies.

I dont think the Lib dems have anything policy wise that would garner a big swing in votes from Tories or convince stay-aways to vote. I can see centrist tories being disillusioned at the current mob, and what has happened with Brexit and all the corruption associated with Covid and PPE, but i tend to think they will either not vote or possibly be attracted by a more radical plan either from a Tory shift even further rightwards or an alternative right leaning party.

The reason I dont think the lib dems will attract centrist tories is that they dont have any major policy that can grasp the attention and endorsement of relatively fair minded (but conservative leaning) people, most of what they do is getting on to the fairer side of the culture wars and its just not a big enough issue, but saying that it is something the right and the media can get a hold of to beat them with.

One issue from research we know garners a lot of support across socio economic sectors is housing costs (both today and in the future), whether buying or renting, and its specific relation to salaries - but - as it stands i dont think there is a real solution to it without hurting the vast majority of the working population and without increasing the proportional wealth of the top 5 to 10%. But tax reform at the very top of the wealth strata and possibly even wealth taxes might, along with proposals for electoral and governmental change might get the attention they need, as long as they can build the arguments.

You have a more half glass full view of the situation than I do.
 
I think it would have been quite simple to hold the march on a different day. So why didn’t they ?

It was so very disrespectful to time it to coincide with Remembrance day. That was the start of the problem and it was 100% unnecessary.

Most of us would have supported a peace protest from afar, had respect been afforded to our war veterans who died awful deaths for this country’s freedoms.

Marching this weekend was highly divisive, contentious and unnecessary.
Please explain why you feel it was disrespectful.

The march was held yesterday. The main Remembrance Day event is today. It’s on TV now.

Yes there was a ceremony held yesterday to mark 11/11/11, but the march started several hours afterwards and the nearest it came to the Cenotaph was about 2 miles away. The troublemakers who caused all the aggravation at the Cenotaph were right wing racists and thugs. What were they even doing in Whitehall when the march they were protesting against was miles away? Why did they feel the need to throw missiles at the police and storm the barriers? And why are the peace protesters in any way responsible for their actions?

And if a peace march which had nothing to do with Remembrance Day was disrespectful, why weren’t the football matches that were held around the country also disrespectful?

Anyway, if it was only a question of timing, will you be joining the peace marchers next weekend?
 
Please explain why you feel it was disrespectful.

The march was held yesterday. The main Remembrance Day event is today. It’s on TV now.

Yes there was a ceremony held yesterday to mark 11/11/11, but the march started several hours afterwards and the nearest it came to the Cenotaph was about 2 miles away. The troublemakers who caused all the aggravation at the Cenotaph were right wing racists and thugs. What were they even doing in Whitehall when the march they were protesting against was miles away? Why did they feel the need to throw missiles at the police and storm the barriers? And why are the peace protesters in any way responsible for their actions?

And if a peace march which had nothing to do with Remembrance Day was disrespectful, why weren’t the football matches that were held around the country also disrespectful?

Anyway, if it was only a question of timing, will you be joining the peace marchers next weekend?
Oh come on football matches and others sports have always been played on remembrance weekends so that’s a very poor argument.
 
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Oh come on football matches and others sports have always been played on remembrance weekends so that’s a very poor argument.
So basically your argument is…

Remembrance Day is a day to remember those who died in war. A march calling for a ceasefire to save the lives of thousands of innocent people, including kids, is obviously disrespectful, although I can’t quite articulate why.

Meanwhile a Jolly Boys outing clearly isn’t disrespectful because we’ve always done it.

Yeah. I can see your logic.
 
There is certainly some urgency to the marcher’s cause with hundreds being bombed to death everyday, and a blockade on water, medicines, food and fuel, and disease starting to take hold in Gaza.
I can understand why they would not want to postpone it for a week, but whether it put any real pressure on the Israeli government is probably doubtful.

The British Legion and the armistice event organisers supported the right to march, and the Police thought they could handle it OK 🙄.
Did it really stop anyone in this country remembering their war dead, and the sacrifices made for our freedoms?
Probably not much, if at all.

If certain sections of the press, and the Home Secretary, had not been trying to ferment an issue out of it all week for their own benefits would it have gone off more peacefully? Probably.
 
So basically your argument is…

Remembrance Day is a day to remember those who died in war. A march calling for a ceasefire to save the lives of thousands of innocent people, including kids, is obviously disrespectful, although I can’t quite articulate why.

Meanwhile a Jolly Boys outing clearly isn’t disrespectful because we’ve always done it.

Yeah. I can see your logic.
I haven't got an argument and I’ve never even used the word disrespectful you have so stop reading what’s not there.

If you read my comments on the remembrance day thread (post 38) I’ve posted that this weekend should be all about remembering our fallen hero’s of all wars as it should be and as it’s been for the last 75 years or so.

You sound to me like it shouldn’t be the case?
 
Please explain why you feel it was disrespectful.

The march was held yesterday. The main Remembrance Day event is today. It’s on TV now.

Yes there was a ceremony held yesterday to mark 11/11/11, but the march started several hours afterwards and the nearest it came to the Cenotaph was about 2 miles away. The troublemakers who caused all the aggravation at the Cenotaph were right wing racists and thugs. What were they even doing in Whitehall when the march they were protesting against was miles away? Why did they feel the need to throw missiles at the police and storm the barriers? And why are the peace protesters in any way responsible for their actions?

And if a peace march which had nothing to do with Remembrance Day was disrespectful, why weren’t the football matches that were held around the country also disrespectful?

Anyway, if it was only a question of timing, will you be joining the peace marchers next weekend?
Surely you can concede that a proposed march of 100,000’s of people would be an unknown quantity and potentially highly volatile with the differing factions and emotions involved.

As you’re such an advocate of freedom of speech ( including thought too, presumably), I imagine you’d deem it permissible to have a different opinion to you, without having to justify it. Sometimes thoughts aren’t always quantifiable… they just are…
 
Surely you can concede that a proposed march of 100,000’s of people would be an unknown quantity and potentially highly volatile with the differing factions and emotions involved.

As you’re such an advocate of freedom of speech ( including thought too, presumably), I imagine you’d deem it permissible to have a different opinion to you, without having to justify it. Sometimes thoughts aren’t always quantifiable… they just are…
It’s just moaning for moanings sake from the usual suspects about two completely unrelated events.

It’s got nothing to do with armistice day, the people who are complaining about it being close to armistice day are the same people who would happily see the people of Gaza blown up and also blame them for the situation.

They’re just against the marches full stop and are searching for more reasons to censor the millions of people who disagree with them.
 
So basically your argument is…

Remembrance Day is a day to remember those who died in war. A march calling for a ceasefire to save the lives of thousands of innocent people, including kids, is obviously disrespectful, although I can’t quite articulate why.

Meanwhile a Jolly Boys outing clearly isn’t disrespectful because we’ve always done it.

Yeah. I can see your logic.
we've done all this previously. The logic is that because sporting events like football take place, it gives big crowds a chance to come together and pay their respects at these events. Your logic would suggest people stay at home and pretty much and show their respect there. It's the coming together and paying their respect in public as to why it happens. It's not about staying at home and sitting silent for two minutes. Anyway, I'll articulate why. Any protest march where there is 150 arrests from the pro marchers, deeply offensive banners being displayed and others showing support for Hamas is not peaceful. I's disruptive.,
 
It’s just moaning for moanings sake from the usual suspects about two completely unrelated events.

It’s got nothing to do with armistice day, the people who are complaining about it being close to armistice day are the same people who would happily see the people of Gaza blown up and also blame them for the situation.

They’re just against the marches full stop and are searching for more reasons to censor the millions of people who disagree with them.
clearly you don't understand the meaning of the word "respect" but yep i already knew that anyway.
 
It’s just moaning for moanings sake from the usual suspects about two completely unrelated events.

It’s got nothing to do with armistice day, the people who are complaining about it being close to armistice day are the same people who would happily see the people of Gaza blown up and also blame them for the situation.

They’re just against the marches full stop and are searching for more reasons to censor the millions of people who disagree with them.
That statement about people on here that would be happy seeing people blown in Gaza and blaming them for it is just embarrassing it really is in fact it’s as bad as anything I’ve read on here for a long time just a shocking choice of words.
 
Surely you can concede that a proposed march of 100,000’s of people would be an unknown quantity and potentially highly volatile with the differing factions and emotions involved.

As you’re such an advocate of freedom of speech ( including thought too, presumably), I imagine you’d deem it permissible to have a different opinion to you, without having to justify it. Sometimes thoughts aren’t always quantifiable… they just are…
Was it an unknown quantity? The Met Commissioner had the raw intel and he judged that, while it might be “messy” (his word), the police could handle it. On that basis he had no legal standing to ask Braverman to ban it. As I said earlier, the Commissioner has to comply with the law. He can’t just make it up as he goes along. And of course he was right.

Yes I agree with freedom of speech and thought and everyone has a right to an opinion. However not all opinions carry equal weight. For instance a few people still think the world is flat, which most people would think is a bit daft and totally ungrounded in reality. That’s why it’s perfectly fair to ask people to explain why they think what they do. It’s to test whether the opinion has any merit to it, and whether other people should take it on board (and maybe adjust their own thinking as a consequence). It’s how we get to something approximating the truth in debates like this. If people just say “I think it because I do”, that’s unlikely to persuade anyone to change their mind.
 
you might be right,

just to clarify though, with historical norms i mean the tendency for low voter turnout to benefit right leaning parties, which seems to be true across all western democracies.

I dont think the Lib dems have anything policy wise that would garner a big swing in votes from Tories or convince stay-aways to vote. I can see centrist tories being disillusioned at the current mob, and what has happened with Brexit and all the corruption associated with Covid and PPE, but i tend to think they will either not vote or possibly be attracted by a more radical plan either from a Tory shift even further rightwards or an alternative right leaning party.

The reason I dont think the lib dems will attract centrist tories is that they dont have any major policy that can grasp the attention and endorsement of relatively fair minded (but conservative leaning) people, most of what they do is getting on to the fairer side of the culture wars and its just not a big enough issue, but saying that it is something the right and the media can get a hold of to beat them with.

One issue from research we know garners a lot of support across socio economic sectors is housing costs (both today and in the future), whether buying or renting, and its specific relation to salaries - but - as it stands i dont think there is a real solution to it without hurting the vast majority of the working population and without increasing the proportional wealth of the top 5 to 10%. But tax reform at the very top of the wealth strata and possibly even wealth taxes might, along with proposals for electoral and governmental change might get the attention they need, as long as they can build the arguments.

You have a more half glass full view of the situation than I do.
By-elections within a year of a GE have been a reasonable guide in the past.
 
That statement about people on here that would be happy seeing people blown in Gaza and blaming them for it is just embarrassing it really is in fact it’s as bad as anything I’ve read on here for a long time just a shocking choice of words.
I'd suggest reading back on some of your own posts before getting high and mighty.
 
I'd suggest reading back on some of your own posts before getting high and mighty.
Nope not having that no one on here including me have ever said or indeed hinted what you said.

You’ve screwed up big style and you know it saying that so let’s now see the evidence who said they are happy seeing Gaza civilians blown up?

Come on post the comments up?
 
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Irrespective of what SB said, i stand by my view that march should not have took place yesterday. It brought the extreme right out and the violence that followed from them who perhaps would not have been there if the march had been cancelled and deferred for a week. There was also a significant number of arrests also from the "pro" march where a "mob" broke away. You only have to look on the Sky News website to see pictures of deeply offensive banners as well as peoples support of Hamas. So nothing to do with peace whatsoever. It was inevitable there would be trouble on a day/ weekend which should be sacrosanct in the calendar for citizens of this country to remember those live lost. For those of who you were advocating the march should take place then like it or not the weekend has been tarnished by events of yesterday. And it could and should have been so different.
What brought the extreme right out was Braverman. The Ceasefire march was already programmed and approved and there was no indication whatsoever of an extreme thuggish right march. That all changed after Braverman opened her mouth.
 
What brought the extreme right out was Braverman. The Ceasefire march was already programmed and approved and there was no indication whatsoever of an extreme thuggish right march. That all changed after Braverman opened her mouth.
Nope what brought the extremists out was Mark Rowley allowing the pro Palestinian March to go ahead on a remembrance weekend.
 
Nope what brought the extremists out was Mark Rowley allowing the pro Palestinian March to go ahead on a remembrance weekend.
Not true. I can't remember who exactly it was but on R 5 Live this morning a top police official ( not sure if current or retired but well in the know) said this. There was no indication of extreme right thugs turning up until Braverman opened her mouth. You can check it out.
 
Not true. I can't remember who exactly it was but on R 5 Live this morning a top police official ( not sure if current or retired but well in the know) said this. There was no indication of extreme right thugs turning up until Braverman opened her mouth. You can check it out.
Not true in yours eyes maybe.

Anyway it’s not like ex Police sticking up for current Police is it? Shock horror.
 
What brought the extreme right out was Braverman. The Ceasefire march was already programmed and approved and there was no indication whatsoever of an extreme thuggish right march. That all changed after Braverman opened her mouth.
that's just deflection. Read my post again and take into account what i've said. Doesn't matter whether the right wing were there or not there were still issues. As i said, have a look at the Sky News website.
 
Not true. I can't remember who exactly it was but on R 5 Live this morning a top police official ( not sure if current or retired but well in the know) said this. There was no indication of extreme right thugs turning up until Braverman opened her mouth. You can check it out.
To some extent, i think you hang yourself with this comment. So if the right wing wouldn't have turned up without the comments of what SB said then it's natural to think they most certainly wouldn't have turned up if the march had been cancelled or deferred til this coming weekend. IE then there wouldn't have been any problems on a weekend which should be sacrosanct in our calendar. And that's the point some have been making.
 
Just read this article, I agree with its contents

The start of the process of modern Conservative Party appropriation of Remembrance as a ‘culture war’ issue can probably be found in the press attacks on CND supporting Labour leader Michael Foot for his ‘scruffy appearance’ at the Cenotaph in 1981 (he was wearing an overcoat over his suit). Attempts by the Conservative party and press to attack Labour politicians and others as insufficiently respectful and patriotic have continued intermittently since. This rhetoric can end up feeding off and amplifying marginal contrarians, such as Islamist radicals burning poppies for shock value.

As the survivors and immediate family members of the First World War generation have died, followed by those of the Second World War, the ceremonies have become related in the public mind less to individual grief and more to ‘national pride’. The long standing tradition in which Remembrance was seen as bound to an aspiration for world peace can still be found in some of the rhetoric but is having trouble cutting through.

It is easily arguable, however, that nothing could be more damaging to the future sustainability of commemoration than a generally unpopular government trying to impose a narrow orthodoxy on the correct meaning of Remembrance and particularly one which tries to ignore real elements of internationalism, dissent and pacifism in the history of commemoration.
 
The whole meaning has been politicised, there have been protests in the past on armistice day without much fuss. I can't stand the recent trend of the plethora of "lest we forget flags" in front gardens and massive poppies on car bumpers. It's cheesy and demeaning. It's a free country so people can do what they want, if they want to put massive poppies on their bumpers or march on armistice day go for it.
 
The whole meaning has been politicised, there have been protests in the past on armistice day without much fuss. I can't stand the recent trend of the plethora of "lest we forget flags" in front gardens and massive poppies on car bumpers. It's cheesy and demeaning. It's a free country so people can do what they want, if they want to put massive poppies on their bumpers or march on armistice day go for it.
Agree, sadly Remembrance day has not just been politicised but commercialised over recent years.
 
It's a really odd situation when you've got a Tory Home Secretary making life extremely complicated for the police by mobilising football hooligan groups against them.

It's proper through the looking glass shit.
Then having the brass neck to say it was "an outrage" that several officers had been injured, thanking them for "their professionalism in the face of violence and aggression from protesters and counter-protesters".

 
It's a really odd situation when you've got a Tory Home Secretary making life extremely complicated for the police by mobilising football hooligan groups against them.

It's proper through the looking glass shit.
Apparently, Sue Ellen claims to be a Buddhist. 🤔
 
Rishi will be under pressure from all sides this week, it’s a situation he can’t win. I’d guess he’ll wait until later this week when the Rwanda decision is made.
 
Rishi will be under pressure from all sides this week, it’s a situation he can’t win. I’d guess he’ll wait until later this week when the Rwanda decision is made.
I’m not so sure about the timing. If the court case goes her way then it’ll strengthen her position. If she loses he’ll be accused of sacking for because a policy he supported has failed. And as you usually get a draft judgment in advance they probably know the result.

Better to get it done today I’d have thought.

Especially after her disgraceful posts yesterday. It’s odd that the ones banging on about the sanctity of Remembrance Day haven’t mentioned that.
 
I’m not so sure about the timing. If the court case goes her way then it’ll strengthen her position. If she loses he’ll be accused of sacking for because a policy he supported has failed. And as you usually get a draft judgment in advance they probably know the result.

Better to get it done today I’d have thought.

Especially after her disgraceful posts yesterday. It’s odd that the ones banging on about the sanctity of Remembrance Day haven’t mentioned that.
i haven't mentioned it because I'm offering my opinion on the sanctity of Remembrance Day. And my opinion has nothing to do with SB or anything she has said. Anyway, we move on, the weekend has gone now, you may think it was a "success" but I don't and we can't change the events of what's happened..
 
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