Total Lockdown Inevitable.

ElBurroSinNombre said:
Just to get back on topic, personally I think that the Lancet article is clear evidence that a properly enforced lockdown (combined with other non medical interventions like T & T) can and does work. BFC has not attempted to explain China's success in fighting the virus if not through enforced lockdown despite it being the source of this outbreak, just posting to say that the reasons for their success are inconclusive.
Edit to add - you may not be able to see the Lancet article because it is paywalled. Essentially it just describes the lockdown measures imposed and how they were implemented, whilst making a cursory comparison with the US and UK.
I'm not going to post on this one again, it's really pointless.
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I would absolutely agree that there is some evidence that a properly enforced lockdown (combined with other non medical interventions like T & T) can reduce certain strains of the virus in certain conditions, down to managable levels. We have no idea what part a whole range of factors including:-

Climate (We saw for example the significant difference in virus transmission in the EU during our Summer period)
Culture
Virus Seeding and preceding community transmission
Virus Strain
Race / Ethnicity and any associated inherent immunity (i.e. prior infection of similar coronavirus infections)
Diet
Environment
Other factors involved in the intervention
etc...

to name just a few potential factors may or may not have contributed and of course, notwithstanding the key point that I was making that unless some form of lockdown / suppression is maintained, then the virus will inevitably come back.

So to that extent, there is no evidence to suggest that the UK or any other EU country could reasonably implement the measures implemented by say Singapore today which would enable us to gain the same level of control over the virus... Or, in fact, whether it would have been possible for us to achieve that back in March.
 
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BFC_BFC_BFC said:
I would absolutely agree that there is some evidence that a properly enforced lockdown (combined with other non medical interventions like T & T) can reduce certain strains of the virus in certain conditions, down to managable levels. We have no idea what part a whole range of factors including:-

Climate (We saw for example the significant difference in virus transmission in the EU during our Summer period)
Culture
Virus Seeding and preceding community transmission
Virus Strain
Race / Ethnicity and any associated inherent immunity (i.e. prior infection of similar coronavirus infections)
Diet
Environment
Other factors involved in the intervention
etc...

to name just a few potential factors may or may not have contributed and of course, notwithstanding the key point that I was making that unless some form of lockdown / suppression is maintained, then the virus will inevitably come back.

So to that extent, there is no evidence to suggest that the UK or any other EU country could reasonably implement the measures implemented by say Singapore today which would enable us to gain the same level of conytrol over the cirus... Or, in fact, whether it would have been possible for us to achieve that back in March.
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The key words there are properly enforced lockdown. We've never had one.
 
BFC_BFC_BFC said:
I would absolutely agree that there is some evidence that a properly enforced lockdown (combined with other non medical interventions like T & T) can reduce certain strains of the virus in certain conditions, down to managable levels. We have no idea what part a whole range of factors including:-

Climate (We saw for example the significant difference in virus transmission in the EU during our Summer period)
Culture
Virus Seeding and preceding community transmission
Virus Strain
Race / Ethnicity and any associated inherent immunity (i.e. prior infection of similar coronavirus infections)
Diet
Environment
Other factors involved in the intervention
etc...

to name just a few potential factors may or may not have contributed and of course, notwithstanding the key point that I was making that unless some form of lockdown / suppression is maintained, then the virus will inevitably come back.

So to that extent, there is no evidence to suggest that the UK or any other EU country could reasonably implement the measures implemented by say Singapore today which would enable us to gain the same level of conytrol over the cirus... Or, in fact, whether it would have been possible for us to achieve that back in March.
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You are changing your argument.

Lockdowns do work if implemented properly.

By keeping people apart - your race, ethnic background or the weather - has nothing to do with it.

If you are apart, it is much harder to pass it on and the virus burns out.

Lockdowns have fat chance of working in the UK unless the population become compliant - which I doubt will ever happen.
 
* Quick rider before I start. I am no expert

Numbers are starting to reduce in Belgium, albeit very slightly


Of course there are demographic and geographic differences to the UK and thus, I don't think it fair to make comparisons.

Belgium closed down all bars, restaurants and non essential shops some time in November I think. The other thing they introduced was compulsory masks in any outdoor space. My MiL is due her first jab soon. Not sure what their policy for 2nd jabs is yet but will let you know
 
seasideone said:
You are changing your argument.

Lockdowns do work if implemented properly.

By keeping people apart - your race, ethnic background or the weather - has nothing to do with it.

If you are apart, it is much harder to pass it on and the virus burns out.

Lockdowns have fat chance of working in the UK unless the population become compliant - which I doubt will ever happen.
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No I'm not changing anything, I have been absolutely consistent throughout.

I don't agree with you that "Lockdowns work if implemented properly" anmd I do not believe you or anyone else has demonstrated that fact unequivocally.

Of course all those other factors can play a part as they can impact on the relative success or failure of the measures implemented... If for example, the Virus is more stable in one climate or environment vs another, then clearly that will effect the ability of the virus to transmit in more challenging conditions like lockdown.... If a particular race are less or more susceptible to the virus likewise... If a particular variant is signifcantly more transmissable that too can affect transmission as we already know that the virus has mutated in order to gain advantage and potentially did so quite early on.

It's possible that something else entirely might underpin transmission levels and prevent the effectiveness of a lockdown... The way we process food or goods for example.... The way we farm animals perhaps... Who knows... We simply don't have enough information on the way the virus transmits and survives in order to be clear about these things...

You are trying to make a black and white assumption...
 
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BFC_BFC_BFC said:
No I'm not changing anything, I have been absolutely consistent throughout.

I don't agree with you that "Lockdowns work if implemented properly" anmd I do not believe you or anyone else has demonstrated that fact unequivocally.

Of course all those other factors can play a part as they can impact on the relative success or failure of the measures implemented... If for example, the Virus is more stable in one climate or environment vs another, then clearly that will effect the ability of the cirus to transmit in more challenging conditions like lockdown.... If a particular race are less or more suscepitble to the virus likewise... If a particular variant is signifcantly more transmissable that too can affect transmission as we already know that the virus has mutated in order to gain advantage and potentially did so quite early on.

It's possible that something else entirely might underpin transmission levels and prevent the effectiveness of a lockdown... The way we process food or goods for example.... The way we farm animals perhaps... Who knows... We simply don't have enough information on the way the virus transmits and survives in order to be clear about these things...

You are trying to make a black and white assumption...
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You can take a horse to water......

It’s obvious however much evidence is presented to you - even from the WHO - you will not consider it.

You just dismiss the evidence even though the evidence presented to you is easily beyond reasonable doubt.
 
BFC_BFC_BFC said:
No I'm not changing anything, I have been absolutely consistent throughout.

I don't agree with you that "Lockdowns work if implemented properly" anmd I do not believe you or anyone else has demonstrated that fact unequivocally.

Of course all those other factors can play a part as they can impact on the relative success or failure of the measures implemented... If for example, the Virus is more stable in one climate or environment vs another, then clearly that will effect the ability of the virus to transmit in more challenging conditions like lockdown.... If a particular race are less or more susceptible to the virus likewise... If a particular variant is signifcantly more transmissable that too can affect transmission as we already know that the virus has mutated in order to gain advantage and potentially did so quite early on.

It's possible that something else entirely might underpin transmission levels and prevent the effectiveness of a lockdown... The way we process food or goods for example.... The way we farm animals perhaps... Who knows... We simply don't have enough information on the way the virus transmits and survives in order to be clear about these things...

You are trying to make a black and white assumption...
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We kind of do know how it transmits though.
 
BFC_BFC_BFC said:
No I'm not changing anything, I have been absolutely consistent throughout.

I don't agree with you that "Lockdowns work if implemented properly" anmd I do not believe you or anyone else has demonstrated that fact unequivocally.

Of course all those other factors can play a part as they can impact on the relative success or failure of the measures implemented... If for example, the Virus is more stable in one climate or environment vs another, then clearly that will effect the ability of the cirus to transmit in more challenging conditions like lockdown.... If a particular race are less or more suscepitble to the virus likewise... If a particular variant is signifcantly more transmissable that too can affect transmission as we already know that the virus has mutated in order to gain advantage and potentially did so quite early on.

It's possible that something else entirely might underpin transmission levels and prevent the effectiveness of a lockdown... The way we process food or goods for example.... The way we farm animals perhaps... Who knows... We simply don't have enough information on the way the virus transmits and survives in order to be clear about these things...

You are trying to make a black and white assumption...
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Seasideone, just a quick bit of advice. I vowed never to get involved in a thread with BFC x3 but i will in this case just the once.
I have nothing to add to the debate but you do realise that BFC X3 is always right and is an expert on everything. Oh! and he will always have the last word even if that is just childish name calling.
 
Poolcat1 said:
Seasideone, just a quick bit of advice. I vowed never to get involved in a thread with BFC x3 but i will in this case just the once.
I have nothing to add to the debate but you do realise that BFC X3 is always right and is an expert on everything. Oh! and he will always have the last word even if that is just childish name calling.
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😂😂😂😂👍

It would appear so 😂😂
 
Levi501 said:
The Tier system is open to abuse/accidental misinterpretation IMO, it doesn’t work. The economy is already bolluxed, and this on/off situation is pissing off small business, who buy in stock, perishable in a lot of cases, only to be told to close down again, People involved in Education, whether it be families arranging child care, teachers preparing lessons, school food ordering and preparation, all then to be told to go back into lockdown. As a lifelong libertarian, I hate the idea of this mass taking away of our freedom and rights, but it has to be carried out for our future. So it has got to be a Total no holds barred lockdown from now on.
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Spot on Al, and it should be in place until Easter or until 30/40 million people have been vaccinated, it’s the only way now to get on top of this variant!
 
seasideone said:
You can take a horse to water......

It’s obvious however much evidence is presented to you - even from the WHO - you will not consider it.

You just dismiss the evidence even though the evidence presented to you is easily beyond reasonable doubt.
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You haven't taken me anywhere near the water... You've presented a weak argument, you have failed to respond to anyt of the issues I have highlighted with your evidence and you have a poor overall grasp of the subject matter.

Your entire premise is based upon the fact that you live in Singapore and they have managed to regain some sense of control over the virus. Beyond that 'high level' argument, you have zero comprehension of the detail or the range of potential factors that come into play... So you adopt an approch equivalent to a drunken fighter simply flailing his arms around in the air and hoping that you might land a lucky punch...

At the end of the day.... I'm really very interested in the possibility that what you are suggesting is true... I would love for it to be true because with a relatively small amount of pain it may well offer a partial solution for us to get things back on an even keel.
Lytham_fy8 said:
We kind of do know how it transmits though.
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No we don't... We know that it transmits from person to person, but we remain unsure of exactly how that occurs....
Poolcat1 said:
Seasideone, just a quick bit of advice. I vowed never to get involved in a thread with BFC x3 but i will in this case just the once.
I have nothing to add to the debate but you do realise that BFC X3 is always right and is an expert on everything. Oh! and he will always have the last word even if that is just childish name calling.
Click to expand...
Another one who feels the need to speak indirectly about people instead of to them 👎 I'm not saying I'm right... I don;t care whether I'm right or not.... I'm interested in hearing the evidence that supports what S1 is saying.
 
At the risk of setting this all off again, I think we have forgotten why we do "lockdowns."

They are not to eliminate the virus, they are to slow down admissions to hospital with Covid symptoms, to keep within manageable limits. This allows the economy to continue, albeit at a reduced level, but were never intended to totally stop transmission.
 
Tangerinemoss said:
At the risk of setting this all off again, I think we have forgotten why we do "lockdowns."

They are not to eliminate the virus, they are to slow down admissions to hospital with Covid symptoms, to keep within manageable limits. This allows the economy to continue, albeit at a reduced level, but were never intended to totally stop transmission.
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I agree with that.... As per my plugging a leaky bucket analogy... Lockdowns are a temporary solution
 
BFC_BFC_BFC said:
You haven't taken me anywhere near the water... You've presented a weak argument, you have failed to respond to anyt of the issues I have highlighted with your evidence and you have a poor overall grasp of the subject matter.

Your entire premise is based upon the fact that you live in Singapore and they have managed to regain some sense of control over the virus. Beyond that 'high level' argument, you have zero comprehension of the detail or the range of potential factors that come into play... So you adopt an approch equivalent to a drunken fighter simply flailing his arms around in the air and hoping that you might land a lucky punch...

At the end of the day.... I'm really very interested in the possibility that what you are suggesting is true... I would love for it to be true because with a relatively small amount of pain it may well offer a partial solution for us to get things back on an even keel.

No we don't... We know that it transmits from person to person, but we remain unsure of exactly how that occurs....

Another one who feels the need to speak indirectly about people instead of to them 👎 I'm not saying I'm right... I don;t care whether I'm right or not.... I'm interested in hearing the evidence that supports what S1 is saying.
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You have been shown multiple evidence, including from the WHO...but you choose to ignore it.
 
BFC_BFC_BFC said:
No I'm not changing anything, I have been absolutely consistent throughout.

I don't agree with you that "Lockdowns work if implemented properly" anmd I do not believe you or anyone else has demonstrated that fact unequivocally.

Of course all those other factors can play a part as they can impact on the relative success or failure of the measures implemented... If for example, the Virus is more stable in one climate or environment vs another, then clearly that will effect the ability of the virus to transmit in more challenging conditions like lockdown.... If a particular race are less or more susceptible to the virus likewise... If a particular variant is signifcantly more transmissable that too can affect transmission as we already know that the virus has mutated in order to gain advantage and potentially did so quite early on.

It's possible that something else entirely might underpin transmission levels and prevent the effectiveness of a lockdown... The way we process food or goods for example.... The way we farm animals perhaps... Who knows... We simply don't have enough information on the way the virus transmits and survives in order to be clear about these things...

You are trying to make a black and white assumption...
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If everyone kept apart from everyone else for a set period of say, a month, the virus would have nowhere to go and would die out. That's a fact. The chances of it happening are nil. As I said before, we need a properly implemented lockdown. We haven't had one yet. As long as people think that nipping out for a daily paper and a bottle of milk, for example, there is no such thing as lockdown, because there will be literally millions of others doing the same and their paths will converge and the virus will transmit.
 
seasideone said:
You have been shown multiple evidence, including from the WHO...but you choose to ignore it.
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No... I have been shown some evidence that suggests, that in certain circumstances, it may be possible to reduce certain strains of coronavirus transmission down trough a combination of different measures, which includes some form of lockdown.

From there to your "Properly implemented Lockdowns Work" is a massive leap of faith..... For which you have provided no conclusive evidence whatsoever.

Anyway, I can see you are getting frustrated and I'm sorry that I won't just accept your assumptions on the basis of how many times you repeat them. There is no point in continuing to go round in circles and so I'm going to leave you to it 👍

If you do hear of any evidence I would be genuinely interested to hear about it though.
 
Wizaard said:
If everyone kept apart from everyone else for a set period of say, a month, the virus would have nowhere to go and would die out. That's a fact. The chances of it happening are nil. As I said before, we need a properly implemented lockdown. We haven't had one yet. As long as people think that nipping out for a daily paper and a bottle of milk, for example, there is no such thing as lockdown, because there will be literally millions of others doing the same and their paths will converge and the virus will transmit.
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As I've said to S1.... Your first sentence is an absolutely huge assumption. It is certainly not a fact...Far from it.
 
Try reading the WHO report and absorbing it.

Try looking at the countries that did implement a proper enforced lockdown, as you have been shown.

The evidence and results are very very strong.
 
BFC_BFC_BFC said:
As I've said to S1.... Your first sentence is an absolutely huge assumption. It is certainly not a fact...Far from it.
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How would a virus transmit if you don't meet anyone and get over your own bout?

Edit: Hypothetical, of course, as is a complete lockdown.
 
Post deleted by me. Just took a pot shot at entirely the wrong target, apologies Wiz.
 
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Wizaard said:
If everyone kept apart from everyone else for a set period of say, a month, the virus would have nowhere to go and would die out. That's a fact. The chances of it happening are nil. As I said before, we need a properly implemented lockdown. We haven't had one yet. As long as people think that nipping out for a daily paper and a bottle of milk, for example, there is no such thing as lockdown, because there will be literally millions of others doing the same and their paths will converge and the virus will transmit.
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As bfc3 says that is a massive assumption. And it seems you not only want to starve the virus, you want to starve the entire population too.
 
Wizaard said:
How would a virus transmit if you don't meet anyone and get over your own bout?

Edit: Hypothetical, of course, as is a complete lockdown.
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The virus potentially has up to a two week incubation period and a person can theoretically remain infectious for some considerable time.

We also have no clear idea of the viability of the virus outside the human body and whether it could remain viable through an alternative host or in other media.

Theoretically though, if every single human being had no contact with another, through any shared surfaces for a prolonged period, then it is possible that the virus could be eradicated....
 
basilrobbie said:
It's not a fact, as the virus doesn't rely solely on direct human to human contact to spread. And how would you feed everybody doing this month if there was no movement allowed?

I'm all in favour of debating alternative approaches, but you are just an idiot.
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Am I missing something here? Robbie calling Wiz an idiot!
 
seasideone said:
Try reading the WHO report and absorbing it.

Try looking at the countries that did implement a proper enforced lockdown, as you have been shown.

The evidence and results are very very strong.
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I’ve read all of it and the evidence is sketchy at best.
 
20togo said:
Not sure you did as I agreed with the rest of your post.😉
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That's the point. I picked the wrong quote, and ended up typing something completely different from what I intended. I'm getting old.

Wiz is an idiot, mind, just less of an idiot than the rest of the Yorkshire lot. 😀
 
BFC_BFC_BFC said:
I’ve read all of it and the evidence is sketchy at best.
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I give up -

WHO report provides evidence.
Multiple countries show how to do it properly
The results speak for themselves

....and apparently it’s still sketchy!!!

I should have learnt by now that you will not listen to anything and will just carry on even when the evidence against your argument is obvious and beyond reasonable doubt.

I’m out of here 👍👍
 
seasideone said:
I give up -

WHO report provides evidence.
Multiple countries show how to do it properly
The results speak for themselves

....and apparently it’s still sketchy!!!

I should have learnt by now that you will not listen to anything and will just carry on even when the evidence against your argument is obvious and beyond reasonable doubt.

I’m out of here 👍👍
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Here's what the WHO has to say about lockdowns

What is WHO’s position on ‘lockdowns’ as a way of fighting COVID-19?


Large scale physical distancing measures and movement restrictions, often referred to as ‘lockdowns’, can slow COVID‑19 transmission by limiting contact between people.

However, these measures can have a profound negative impact on individuals, communities, and societies by bringing social and economic life to a near stop. Such measures disproportionately affect disadvantaged groups, including people in poverty, migrants, internally displaced people and refugees, who most often live in overcrowded and under resourced settings, and depend on daily labour for subsistence.

WHO recognizes that at certain points, some countries have had no choice but to issue stay-at-home orders and other measures, to buy time.
Governments must make the most of the extra time granted by ‘lockdown’ measures by doing all they can to build their capacities to detect, isolate, test and care for all cases; trace and quarantine all contacts; engage, empower and enable populations to drive the societal response and more.
WHO is hopeful that countries will use targeted interventions where and when needed, based on the local situation.
 
20togo said:
As bfc3 says that is a massive assumption. And it seems you not only want to starve the virus, you want to starve the entire population too.
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Can no one shop for a month? What would you do in the event of a nuclear war? Go shopping every day?
 
BRR said: Wiz is an idiot, mind, just less of an idiot than the rest of the Yorkshire lot. 😀

Oy, you pompous git, That's twice in two days you've had a go at me. 😒
 
seasideone said:
That’s a misleading headline.

They say you shouldn’t rely on them as the only thing - and that it can make people poorer.

The fact is if the are done properly they work - as the evidence shows.

Why have I replied again!!!!!!!
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I don’t know because you still haven’t managed to offer any more than you have offered throughout... I.e just repeating yourself and becoming increasingly frustrated that your lack of anything concrete hasn’t convinced me to accept your opinion.

p.s. Surely if “properly implemented lockdowns” worked, then the WHO would be advocating as the solution to the problem?
 
When the WHO reviewed how China dealt with it (as in the report) the strict lockdown was seen as the reason they managed to pretty much eliminate it.

The lockdowns in Oz, Singapore, New Zealand etc where they have been much tighter - again worked.

The biggest problem has been stopping the virus coming back into the country which is why the borders are shut.

It’s simple really 👍
 
Curryman said:
BRR said: Wiz is an idiot, mind, just less of an idiot than the rest of the Yorkshire lot. 😀

Oy, you pompous git, That's twice in two days you've had a go at me. 😒
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I likened you to an old buzzard. That's just basic observational skills.

Get back in your closet you old fool, and give my regards to that rather fair wife of yours while you're at it. 😀
 
As many in the Government are fond of “The Great British Blitz Spirit” approach to courting the public, does anyone else think its time for a Government of National Unity for at least the next 6 Months so whatever your political allegiance or leaning we can get EVERYONE to pull in the same direction whilst the vaccination program kicks in and we can choke the virus transmission rate?

You might think, after all that has happened that the Johnson Government might want to spread the blame across all parties now that the perceived glory of the much trumpeted Oxford Vaccine hasn’t resulted in calls to ring out the bells in celebration.

What the country is crying out for is leadership and direction and a clear purpose, people might even be a bit more forgiving if there seemed to be any semblance of this (see Scotland for example) it might not always be the best of plans, it may be a plan that doesn’t quite go as well as we hoped, but at least we would have a common purpose we could work toward.

With all the best will in the world, you could hardly say that the thrashing about and u-turn after u-turn approach is working - unless, after all, that IS their plan!
 
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