B
basilrobbie
Guest
I've been listening to or watching news programmes since very early this morning, and it has been grim stuff. That the US intelligentsia is shocked by what has happened comes as no surprise. That they have no idea what will happen next - or should - is more of a worry.
I think the immediate priority is the next two weeks. They need to get to the 21st without widespread disorder ; they need to make sure that Trump can't pour any more petrol on the fire and - more relevantly for us - that he isn't able to lash out beyond their borders.
The 25th Amendment is in vogue today. I don't envy Pence and the Cabinet in trying to decide whether that is the right option for them. It might seem attractive as a short-term measure. But the way it works risks splitting the Republican Party in two in a way that might be terminal. As it happens, I think that split might be coming no matter what happens.
In fact, the GOP is in a bind. There is a significant minority within its constituency who actually owe a stronger allegiance to Trump than they do to the Party. It is said today that 45% of Republicans think yesterday's events were justified. But I am more interested in the 55% who don't believe this. Is the Republican Party under this gang of crooks really their party anymore? I suppose only time will tell ; but it hardly helps the electoral chances of a Party that has lost seven out of the last eight popular votes for the Presidency. Not least because it energises and mobilises the Democrats.
Politically, the Democrats can probably hardly believe their luck. It's hard to see how this, combined in changes to demography and administrative reform isn't going to help their electability. But they do have to manage the nation through this crisis into calmer waters. In that sense, we are all lucky that a calm head is going to be in charge. I think Biden is exactly what they need at the moment.
That leaves two big problems. One is what happens to Trump himself. I have little doubt that he knew what was going to happen yesterday, and had some hand in orchestrating it. He deserves all the criminal sanctions that are coming his way, albeit they risk making a martyr out of him.
Which leads to the biggest problem they have, which is more social than political. They have a hard core of people - mainly white, poorly educated, working class - who are astonishingly ignorant and therefore manipulable to an extraordinary degree. Their sense of alienation has been fuelled, manipulated and exploited over the last five years or so. And even if the Manipulator In Chief is going to be shown the door, they - and the political capital they represent - are going to be here to stay. Worrying times.
I think the immediate priority is the next two weeks. They need to get to the 21st without widespread disorder ; they need to make sure that Trump can't pour any more petrol on the fire and - more relevantly for us - that he isn't able to lash out beyond their borders.
The 25th Amendment is in vogue today. I don't envy Pence and the Cabinet in trying to decide whether that is the right option for them. It might seem attractive as a short-term measure. But the way it works risks splitting the Republican Party in two in a way that might be terminal. As it happens, I think that split might be coming no matter what happens.
In fact, the GOP is in a bind. There is a significant minority within its constituency who actually owe a stronger allegiance to Trump than they do to the Party. It is said today that 45% of Republicans think yesterday's events were justified. But I am more interested in the 55% who don't believe this. Is the Republican Party under this gang of crooks really their party anymore? I suppose only time will tell ; but it hardly helps the electoral chances of a Party that has lost seven out of the last eight popular votes for the Presidency. Not least because it energises and mobilises the Democrats.
Politically, the Democrats can probably hardly believe their luck. It's hard to see how this, combined in changes to demography and administrative reform isn't going to help their electability. But they do have to manage the nation through this crisis into calmer waters. In that sense, we are all lucky that a calm head is going to be in charge. I think Biden is exactly what they need at the moment.
That leaves two big problems. One is what happens to Trump himself. I have little doubt that he knew what was going to happen yesterday, and had some hand in orchestrating it. He deserves all the criminal sanctions that are coming his way, albeit they risk making a martyr out of him.
Which leads to the biggest problem they have, which is more social than political. They have a hard core of people - mainly white, poorly educated, working class - who are astonishingly ignorant and therefore manipulable to an extraordinary degree. Their sense of alienation has been fuelled, manipulated and exploited over the last five years or so. And even if the Manipulator In Chief is going to be shown the door, they - and the political capital they represent - are going to be here to stay. Worrying times.